Stock Ratings / Financials / BSRR / forecast

BWFG (66) NPB (60) BSVN (71) BWB (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$41.90 -1.25% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.73

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $550.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on BSRR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ: BSRR) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $41.90 (-1.25% 1D, market cap $550.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BSRR ranks #259 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does BSRR compare to BWFG and NPB in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BSRR carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 13.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 15.8x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $555.2M) and NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $559.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BSRR?

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Per BSRR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001130144), Sierra Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $42.3M in net income, and $32.2M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $49.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $41.73 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BSRR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BSRR SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 10 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$39.50-0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$39.23+7.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$42.30-0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$41.90+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BSRR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, BSRR faces multiple-compression risk if 13.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($40.20) or 200D SMA ($38.28) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($43.41) toward Bear Floor ($33.86).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BSRR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BSRR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BSRR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $41.90: 238.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $33.86

$8,081

$-1,919 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $43.41

$10,360

+$360 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $51.22

$12,224

+$2,224 (+22.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$45	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$48	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$39	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BSRR Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BSRR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $42.34H $42.43L $41.90C $41.90VOL 126.3K

RES: $44.40SUP: $37.73SMA50: $40.20SMA200: $38.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BSRR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BSRR Butterfly Map → + Track BSRR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

4.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BSRR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BSRR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BSRR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BSRR)

Financials Rank #259 of 1096 ⚔️ BWFG vs BSRR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BSRR vs. BWFG, NPB, BSVN, BWB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) ranks #259 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #683 by equity capitalization ($550.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with BSRR at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BSRR ACTIVE Sierra Bancorp	C+	66/100	13.0x	—	11.6%	-1.25%	$550.2M	Benchmark Subject
BWFG Bankwell Financial Group Inc.	C+	66/100	15.8x	—	11.7%	+2.27%	$555.2M	/bwfg-vs-bsrr →
NPB Northpointe Bancshares Inc.	C-	60/100	6.7x	—	14.7%	-2.41%	$559.5M	/npb-vs-bsrr →
BSVN Bank7 Corp.	B-	71/100	13.1x	—	17.2%	-1.13%	$564.9M	/bsvn-vs-bsrr →
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.	D+	55/100	12.3x	—	8.9%	-0.64%	$567.2M	/bwb-vs-bsrr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001130144

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $42.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of $32.2M (-42.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BSRR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $49.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$42.3M	$33.7M	$32.2M	$3.83B	$49.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$40.6M	$57.2M	$56.0M	$3.61B	$49.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$34.8M	$53.2M	$53.2M	—	—

3. BSRR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does BSRR compare to BWFG and NPB in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BSRR?

Where is BSRR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BSRR last traded at $41.90 (-1.25% on volume of 69,382 shares), positioning the stock +4.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($40.20) and +9.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.28). Across its 52-week range of $27.93 to $44.00, BSRR sits at the 86.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($39.47 to $44.33).

BSRR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BSRR's 12-month stock price target?

Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $43.41 (+3.6% from $41.90), with a bull-case target of $51.22 and a bear-case floor of $33.86.

Is BSRR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates BSRR C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: BSRR RQD Cockpit BSRR 12M Forecast BSRR Earnings & Move BSRR Dividends & DRIP BSRR Insiders & 13F BSRR Whale Options BSRR Profit Sankey BSRR News & Why