Stock Ratings / Utilities / AWR / options

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American States Water Company (AWR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$85.35 +1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35

American States Water Company (AWR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AWR SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$82.26+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$83.45+2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$85.44-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$85.35+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AWR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, AWR faces multiple-compression risk if 25.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 88.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($85.24) or 200D SMA ($80.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($87.27) toward Bear Floor ($68.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AWR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AWR.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AWR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AWR
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

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AWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $86.49H $87.00L $84.83C $85.35VOL 212.1K

RES: $94.63SUP: $79.05SMA50: $85.24SMA200: $80.09

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AWR Butterfly Map → + Track AWR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

19.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AWR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AWR)

Utilities Rank #25 of 117 ⚔️ CWT vs AWR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AWR vs. CWT, HTO, MSEX, WTRG)

Industry: Water Supply (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American States Water Company (AWR) ranks #25 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #67 by equity capitalization ($3.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTRG leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while WTRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CWT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AWR at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AWR ACTIVE American States Water Company	C	63/100	25.9x	90.8%	8.9%	+1.08%	$3.38B	Benchmark Subject
CWT California Water Service Group	C+	67/100	23.0x	—	—	+1.00%	$2.94B	/cwt-vs-awr →
HTO H2O America	C-	60/100	27.6x	—	4.1%	-5.23%	$2.83B	/hto-vs-awr →
MSEX Middlesex Water Company	C+	67/100	—	—	4.9%	-0.05%	$1.04B	/msex-vs-awr →
WTRG Essential Utilities Inc.	D+	55/100	10.9x	—	9.9%	+1.21%	$12.14B	/wtrg-vs-awr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001056903

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American States Water Company (AWR) reported GAAP revenue of $658.1M (+10.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $595.5M , and +10.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $130.4M, operating cash flow of $229.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.1M (+78.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AWR closed FY2025 with $2.72B in total assets against $782.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$658.1M	$130.4M	$229.7M	-$7.1M	$2.72B	$782.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$595.5M	$119.3M	$198.7M	-$33.2M	$2.50B	$640.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$595.7M	$124.9M	$67.7M	$67.7M	—	—

3. AWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $85.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $3.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AWR ranks #25 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AWR compare to CWT and HTO in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Water Supply), AWR carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.9x, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, CWT (California Water Service Group) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC —, cap $2.94B) and HTO (H2O America) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $2.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTRG leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while WTRG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWR?

Per AWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001056903), American States Water Company generated $658.1M in revenue (+10.5% YoY), $130.4M in net income, and -$7.1M in free cash flow against $2.72B in total assets and $782.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AWR last traded at $85.35 (+1.08% on volume of 290,772 shares), positioning the stock +0.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($85.24) and +6.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($80.09). Across its 52-week range of $69.45 to $91.72, AWR sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($81.85 to $88.85).

AWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AWR's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for AWR.

Direct Sub-Reports: AWR RQD Cockpit AWR 12M Forecast AWR Earnings & Move AWR Dividends & DRIP AWR Insiders & 13F AWR Whale Options AWR Profit Sankey AWR News & Why