MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AWR Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$85.35 +1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35
American States Water Company (AWR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $3.38B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AWR SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 71% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$82.26+1.4% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$83.45+2.4% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$85.44-0.1% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$85.35+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AWR Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, AWR faces multiple-compression risk if 25.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 88.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($85.24) or 200D SMA ($80.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($87.27) toward Bear Floor ($68.07).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AWR Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
American States Water Company (AWR) advanced +1.08% to $85.35, trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($69.45 – $91.72). Solid 91% profit margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 26x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 71% of its 52-week range ($69.45 – $91.72) with RSI-14 at 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.1% around $85.35 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 90.8% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AWR Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
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CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AWR Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.36%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $86.49H $87.00L $84.83C $85.35VOL 212.1K
RES: $94.63SUP: $79.05SMA50: $85.24SMA200: $80.09
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
19.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +10.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AWR today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AWR)
Utilities Rank #25 of 117
⚔️ CWT vs AWR Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AWR vs. CWT, HTO, MSEX, WTRG)
Industry: Water Supply (13 Tracked Issuers)Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American States Water Company (AWR) ranks #25 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #67 by equity capitalization ($3.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTRG leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while WTRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CWT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with AWR at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWR
ACTIVE
American States Water Company | C | 63/100 | 25.9x | 90.8% | 8.9% | +1.08% | $3.38B | Benchmark Subject |
| CWT California Water Service Group | C+ | 67/100 | 23.0x | — | — | +1.00% | $2.94B | /cwt-vs-awr → |
| HTO H2O America | C- | 60/100 | 27.6x | — | 4.1% | -5.23% | $2.83B | /hto-vs-awr → |
| MSEX Middlesex Water Company | C+ | 67/100 | — | — | 4.9% | -0.05% | $1.04B | /msex-vs-awr → |
| WTRG Essential Utilities Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 10.9x | — | 9.9% | +1.21% | $12.14B | /wtrg-vs-awr → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001056903In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American States Water Company (AWR) reported GAAP revenue of $658.1M (+10.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $595.5M , and +10.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $130.4M, operating cash flow of $229.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.1M (+78.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AWR closed FY2025 with $2.72B in total assets against $782.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $658.1M | $130.4M | $229.7M | -$7.1M | $2.72B | $782.7M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $595.5M | $119.3M | $198.7M | -$33.2M | $2.50B | $640.4M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $595.7M | $124.9M | $67.7M | $67.7M | — | — |
3. AWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $85.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $3.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AWR ranks #25 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AWR compare to CWT and HTO in the Utilities sector?
Within the Utilities sector (Water Supply), AWR carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.9x, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, CWT (California Water Service Group) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC —, cap $2.94B) and HTO (H2O America) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $2.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTRG leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while WTRG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWR?
Per AWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001056903), American States Water Company generated $658.1M in revenue (+10.5% YoY), $130.4M in net income, and -$7.1M in free cash flow against $2.72B in total assets and $782.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AWR last traded at $85.35 (+1.08% on volume of 290,772 shares), positioning the stock +0.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($85.24) and +6.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($80.09). Across its 52-week range of $69.45 to $91.72, AWR sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($81.85 to $88.85).
AWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AWR stock moving today?
Why AWR Stock advanced +1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 91% profit margin (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 26x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.