Stock Ratings / Utilities / AWR / forecast

CWT (68) HTO (60) MSEX (65) WTRG (55) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

American States Water Company (AWR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$85.35 +1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35

American States Water Company (AWR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AWR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $85.35 (+1.08% 1D, market cap $3.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, AWR ranks #24 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AWR compare to CWT and HTO in the Utilities sector?

▼

Within the Utilities sector (Water Supply), AWR carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.9x, gross margin of 90.8%, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, CWT (California Water Service Group) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 23.0x, ROIC —, cap $2.94B) and HTO (H2O America) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 27.6x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $2.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTRG leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while WTRG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWR?

▼

Per AWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001056903), American States Water Company generated $658.1M in revenue (+10.5% YoY), $130.4M in net income, and -$7.1M in free cash flow against $2.72B in total assets and $782.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.35 (+0.00%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AWR SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$82.85-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$81.62+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$85.22+0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$85.35+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AWR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, AWR faces multiple-compression risk if 25.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 88.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($85.17) or 200D SMA ($80.14) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($87.27) toward Bear Floor ($68.07).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AWR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $85.35: 117.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $68.07

$7,975

$-2,025 (-20.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $87.27

$10,225

+$225 (+2.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $102.98

$12,066

+$2,066 (+20.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$91	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$97	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$78	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AWR Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $84.44H $85.35L $84.44C $85.35VOL 290.8K

RES: $94.69SUP: $78.98SMA50: $85.17SMA200: $80.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AWR Butterfly Map → + Track AWR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

19.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AWR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AWR)

Utilities Rank #24 of 117 ⚔️ CWT vs AWR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (AWR vs. CWT, HTO, MSEX, WTRG)

Industry: Water Supply (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American States Water Company (AWR) ranks #24 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #67 by equity capitalization ($3.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTRG leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while WTRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CWT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with AWR at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AWR ACTIVE American States Water Company	C	63/100	25.9x	90.8%	8.9%	+1.08%	$3.38B	Benchmark Subject
CWT California Water Service Group	C+	68/100	23.0x	—	—	+1.00%	$2.94B	/cwt-vs-awr →
HTO H2O America	C-	60/100	27.6x	—	4.1%	-5.23%	$2.83B	/hto-vs-awr →
MSEX Middlesex Water Company	C	65/100	—	—	4.9%	-0.05%	$1.04B	/msex-vs-awr →
WTRG Essential Utilities Inc.	D+	55/100	10.9x	—	9.9%	+1.21%	$12.14B	/wtrg-vs-awr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001056903

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American States Water Company (AWR) reported GAAP revenue of $658.1M (+10.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $595.5M , and +10.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $130.4M, operating cash flow of $229.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.1M (+78.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AWR closed FY2025 with $2.72B in total assets against $782.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$658.1M	$130.4M	$229.7M	-$7.1M	$2.72B	$782.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$595.5M	$119.3M	$198.7M	-$33.2M	$2.50B	$640.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$595.7M	$124.9M	$67.7M	$67.7M	—	—

3. AWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does AWR compare to CWT and HTO in the Utilities sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AWR?

Where is AWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AWR last traded at $85.35 (+1.08% on volume of 290,772 shares), positioning the stock +0.21% above its 50-day simple moving average ($85.17) and +6.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($80.14). Across its 52-week range of $69.45 to $91.72, AWR sits at the 71.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($81.94 to $88.76).

AWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AWR's 12-month stock price target?

American States Water Company (AWR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $87.27 (+2.2% from $85.35), with a bull-case target of $102.98 and a bear-case floor of $68.07.

Is AWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AWR C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 63/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AWR RQD Cockpit AWR 12M Forecast AWR Earnings & Move AWR Dividends & DRIP AWR Insiders & 13F AWR Whale Options AWR Profit Sankey AWR News & Why