Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARLO / earnings

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Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.6% Move

$14.75 +8.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.94

Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.59B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.94 (+1.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARLO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARLO SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.60 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$12.40-1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$12.16+7.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$13.03+13.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$14.75+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARLO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, ARLO faces multiple-compression risk if 106.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 41.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.96) or 200D SMA ($13.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.41) toward Bear Floor ($12.02).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARLO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARLO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.6% Swing Band

±$1.56 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ARLO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $0.14 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$529.3M	$14.9M	$78.7M	44%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$30.5M	$48.6M	36.7%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$22.0M	$38.3M	44%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ARLO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ARLO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $14.55H $14.77L $14.07C $14.75VOL 2.16M

RES: $16.34SUP: $11.10SMA50: $12.96SMA200: $13.38

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARLO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARLO Butterfly Map → + Track ARLO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARLO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARLO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARLO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARLO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #218 of 1011 ⚔️ PRG vs ARLO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARLO vs. PRG, UPBD, KPLT, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) ranks #218 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #448 by equity capitalization ($1.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. PRG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with ARLO at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARLO ACTIVE Arlo Technologies Inc.	C+	68/100	106.3x	44.0%	6.0%	+8.14%	$1.59B	Benchmark Subject
PRG PROG Holdings Inc.	B+	80/100	8.9x	—	37.3%	+8.42%	$1.31B	/prg-vs-arlo →
UPBD Upbound Group Inc.	B+	79/100	16.0x	48.4%	30.7%	+18.16%	$1.16B	/upbd-vs-arlo →
KPLT Katapult Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	—	17.7%	-0.8%	+37.58%	$1.06B	/kplt-vs-arlo →
CTOS Custom Truck One Source Inc.	C-	61/100	—	28.5%	4.1%	+1.39%	$2.48B	/ctos-vs-arlo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001736946

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO) reported GAAP revenue of $529.3M (+3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M ) , GAAP net income of $14.9M, operating cash flow of $78.7M, and free cash flow of $78.7M (+61.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARLO closed FY2025 with $310.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.60, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$529.3M	$14.9M	$78.7M	$78.7M	$310.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$30.5M	$51.3M	$48.6M	$298.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$22.0M	$38.3M	$38.3M	—	—

3. ARLO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARLO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arlo Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ARLO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $14.75 (+8.14% 1D, market cap $1.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARLO ranks #218 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARLO compare to PRG and UPBD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), ARLO carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 106.3x, gross margin of 44.0%, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, PRG (PROG Holdings Inc.) holds a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 37.3%, cap $1.31B) and UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) posts a B+ grade (79/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARLO?

Per ARLO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001736946), Arlo Technologies Inc. generated $529.3M in revenue (+3.6% YoY), $14.9M in net income, and $78.7M in free cash flow against $310.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 106x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARLO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARLO last traded at $14.75 (+8.14% on volume of 2,347,169 shares), positioning the stock +13.81% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.96) and +10.24% above its 200-day simple moving average ($13.38). Across its 52-week range of $11.05 to $19.35, ARLO sits at the 44.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($13.19 to $16.31).

ARLO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ARLO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Arlo Technologies Inc. (ARLO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ARLO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.6% event move for ARLO, spanning a range between $13.19 and $16.31.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARLO RQD Cockpit ARLO 12M Forecast ARLO Earnings & Move ARLO Dividends & DRIP ARLO Insiders & 13F ARLO Whale Options ARLO Profit Sankey ARLO News & Why