MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AMPL Stock slipped -1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$17.10 -1.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.01
Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.14B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.01 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 8.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMPL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.2% FCF Margin ($28.2M FCF) & 74% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$15.67-5.9% Next Q
42
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$14.75+18.1% Next Q
45
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$17.42-1.8% Next Q
47
CurrentGrade D$17.10-1.4% Hist 90D α
50
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMPL Turnaround Squeeze
While AMPL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.47) and Max Pain ($17.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.45.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMPL• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMPL Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AMPL Stock slipped -1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) slipped -1.95% to $17.10, trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($5.51 – $17.84). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 94% of its 52-week range ($5.51 – $17.84) with RSI-14 at 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.7% around $17.10 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 74% gross margin and $28.2M annual free cash flow.
Live AMPL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMPL)
- ✓Walkthrough of AMPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +140.51%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $17.03H $17.25L $16.48C $17.10VOL 1.97M
RES: $17.99SUP: $15.35SMA50: $14.47SMA200: $9.61
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMPL)
Technology Rank #396 of 714
⚔️ SOUN vs AMPL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMPL vs. SOUN, KARO, BL, AI)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) ranks #396 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #284 by equity capitalization ($2.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BL leads on earnings valuation at 79.9x trailing P/E, while BL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.6% ROIC and 75.2% gross margin. KARO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with AMPL at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMPL
ACTIVE
Amplitude Inc. (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | 74.0% | -35.0% | -1.95% | $2.14B | Benchmark Subject |
| SOUN SoundHound AI Inc | D- | 36/100 | — | 83.4% | -5.9% | -1.80% | $2.10B | /soun-vs-ampl → |
| KARO Karooooo Ltd. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +1.93% | $2.06B | /karo-vs-ampl → |
| BL BlackLine Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 79.9x | 75.2% | 20.6% | -0.24% | $1.96B | /bl-vs-ampl → |
| AI C3.ai Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 30.9% | -35.0% | -1.30% | $1.96B | /ai-vs-ampl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001866692In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $343.2M (+14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $299.3M , and +24.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$88.5M, operating cash flow of $29.8M, and free cash flow of $28.2M (+68.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMPL closed FY2025 with $420.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $343.2M | -$88.5M | $29.8M | $28.2M | $420.7M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $299.3M | -$94.3M | $18.5M | $16.8M | $445.9M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $276.3M | -$90.4M | $25.6M | $25.6M | — | — |
3. AMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: AMPL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $17.10 (-1.95% 1D, market cap $2.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AMPL ranks #396 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AMPL compare to SOUN and KARO in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), AMPL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SOUN (SoundHound AI Inc) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.9%, cap $2.10B) and KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BL leads on earnings multiple (79.9x) while BL leads on capital efficiency (20.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMPL?
Per AMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866692), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) generated $343.2M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), -$88.5M in net income, and $28.2M in free cash flow against $420.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AMPL last traded at $17.10 (-1.95% on volume of 1,729,628 shares), positioning the stock +18.18% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.47) and +77.94% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.61). Across its 52-week range of $5.51 to $17.84, AMPL sits at the 94.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($15.44 to $18.76).
AMPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AMPL stock moving today?
Why AMPL Stock slipped -1.95% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.