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Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ALMU stock right now?

Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is ALMU's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALMU's 12-month base price target is $7.57 (range $5.9 to $33.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$8.04 +2.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.06

Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $155.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.06 (+0.20%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALMU)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALMU SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$11.40-30.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$7.95-13.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.91+16.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$8.04-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALMU Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALMU currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.58) and Max Pain ($8.44) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.38.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALMU• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALMU Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

31.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE6% OF RANGE

L: $7$8.04H: $32

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ALMU

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-21.8% ROIC with 59.6% gross margin and -0.84% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALMU

✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALMU)

✓Walkthrough of ALMU's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALMU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -65.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $7.47H $8.04L $7.06C $8.04VOL 737.5K

RES: $8.54SUP: $5.98SMA50: $11.58SMA200: $16.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALMU Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALMU Butterfly Map → + Track ALMU →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALMU today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALMU. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALMU today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALMU)

Technology Rank #489 of 714 ⚔️ ICG vs ALMU Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (ALMU vs. ICG, GSIT, QUIK, VLN)

Industry: Semiconductors (95 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) ranks #489 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #501 by equity capitalization ($155.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALMU leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ICG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.0% ROIC and 7.2% gross margin. ALMU currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALMU ACTIVE Aeluma Inc.	D	45/100	—	59.6%	-21.8%	+2.16%	$155.3M	Benchmark Subject
ICG Intchains Group Limited	D-	37/100	—	7.2%	-11.0%	-3.57%	$163.1M	/icg-vs-almu →
GSIT GSI Technology	E	31/100	—	54.5%	-35.0%	-4.22%	$165.6M	/gsit-vs-almu →
QUIK QuickLogic Corporation	D-	37/100	—	22.0%	-35.0%	-2.53%	$169.3M	/quik-vs-almu →
VLN Valens Semiconductor Ltd.	E	27/100	—	62.4%	-34.9%	-1.80%	$172.7M	/vln-vs-almu →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001828805

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) reported GAAP revenue of $4.7M (+407.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $919.0K , and +2312.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$3.0M, operating cash flow of -$1.1M, and free cash flow of -$1.3M (+65.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALMU closed FY2025 with $42.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$4.7M	-$3.0M	-$1.1M	-$1.3M	$42.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$919.0K	-$4.6M	-$3.5M	-$3.8M	$6.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$193.3K	-$5.4M	-$3.6M	-$3.6M	—	—

3. ALMU Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALMU stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aeluma Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMU) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $8.04 (+2.16% 1D, market cap $155.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, ALMU ranks #489 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALMU compare to ICG and GSIT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), ALMU carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 59.6%, and ROIC of -21.8%. By comparison, ICG (Intchains Group Limited) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.0%, cap $163.1M) and GSIT (GSI Technology) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $165.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALMU leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ICG leads on capital efficiency (-11.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALMU?

Per ALMU's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001828805), Aeluma Inc. generated $4.7M in revenue (+407.6% YoY), -$3.0M in net income, and -$1.3M in free cash flow against $42.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALMU trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALMU last traded at $8.04 (+2.16% on volume of 598,520 shares), positioning the stock -30.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.58) and -51.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.66). Across its 52-week range of $6.59 to $31.79, ALMU sits at the 5.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.04 to $9.04).

ALMU Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ALMU stock right now?

Aeluma Inc. (ALMU) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ALMU's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALMU's 12-month base price target is $7.57 (range $5.9 to $33.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALMU RQD Cockpit ALMU 12M Forecast ALMU Earnings & Move ALMU Dividends & DRIP ALMU Insiders & 13F ALMU Whale Options ALMU Profit Sankey ALMU News & Why