Stock Ratings / Health Care / ACAD / financials

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$20.59 -0.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.52

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID rating (50/100 RQD Confidence). Alongside weak composite pillar scores, our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing operating cash flow (+103.4% (NI vs OCF)).

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $20.59 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $3.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ACAD carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of 91.7%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.60B) and OGN (Organon & Co.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

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Per ACAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001070494), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $391.0M in net income, and $105.1M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.52 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACAD SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$19.41+2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$19.80-0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$19.74+4.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$20.59-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACAD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ACAD currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($23.57) and Max Pain ($21.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ACAD Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$105.1M (9.8% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $726.4M

FY24

Rev $957.8M

FY25

Rev $1.07B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.07B	91.7%	9.8%	$391.0M	$105.1M	7.9%
FY 2024	$957.8M	91.5%	24.1%	$226.0M	$157.2M	44.1%
FY 2023	$726.4M	91.7%	-10.1%	-$61.0M	$16.7M	7.9%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACAD)

✓Walkthrough of ACAD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ACAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $20.32H $20.76L $20.32C $20.59VOL 2.19M

RES: $36.09SUP: $16.96SMA50: $23.57SMA200: $23.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACAD Butterfly Map → + Track ACAD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACAD)

Health Care Rank #290 of 1016 ⚔️ AMLX vs ACAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ACAD vs. AMLX, OGN, XENE, PBLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) ranks #290 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #193 by equity capitalization ($3.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACAD leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while OGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 53.3% gross margin. OGN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ACAD at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACAD ACTIVE ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	50/100	9.1x	91.7%	7.9%	-0.82%	$3.58B	Benchmark Subject
AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.63%	$3.60B	/amlx-vs-acad →
OGN Organon & Co.	B-	70/100	19.4x	53.3%	24.9%	+0.22%	$3.63B	/ogn-vs-acad →
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.35%	$3.64B	/xene-vs-acad →
PBLS Parabilis Medicines Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-1.32%	$3.50B	/pbls-vs-acad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001070494

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $957.8M , and +47.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $391.0M, operating cash flow of $109.8M, and free cash flow of $105.1M (-33.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACAD closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.07B	$391.0M	$109.8M	$105.1M	$1.56B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$957.8M	$226.0M	$157.7M	$157.2M	$1.19B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$726.4M	-$61.0M	$16.7M	$16.7M	—	—

3. ACAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

Where is ACAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACAD last traded at $20.59 (-0.82% on volume of 1,137,550 shares), positioning the stock -12.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.57) and -12.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($23.65). Across its 52-week range of $18.39 to $30.96, ACAD sits at the 17.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($19.31 to $21.87).

ACAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ACAD converted $1.1B of revenue into a 91.7% gross margin, 9.8% operating margin, and $105.1M in free cash flow (9.8% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: ACAD RQD Cockpit ACAD 12M Forecast ACAD Earnings & Move ACAD Dividends & DRIP ACAD Insiders & 13F ACAD Whale Options ACAD Profit Sankey ACAD News & Why