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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$20.76 +2.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.80

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.80 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACAD SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 19% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 9.8% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.78-3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$19.12+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$19.73+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$20.76+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ACAD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, ACAD faces multiple-compression risk if 9.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 89.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.74) or 200D SMA ($23.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.51) toward Bear Floor ($16.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.530 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

6.26>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $18$20.76H: $31

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on ACAD

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

7.9% ROIC with 91.7% gross margin and 2.94% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 6.26 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (72)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ACAD

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ACAD Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ACAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.53%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.88H $21.01L $20.49C $20.76VOL 1.14M

RES: $35.99SUP: $17.06SMA50: $23.74SMA200: $23.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACAD Butterfly Map → + Track ACAD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACAD)

Health Care Rank #127 of 1016 ⚔️ AMLX vs ACAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ACAD vs. AMLX, OGN, XENE, PBLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) ranks #127 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #193 by equity capitalization ($3.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACAD leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while OGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 53.3% gross margin. ACAD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACAD ACTIVE ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.	C+	66/100	9.1x	91.7%	7.9%	+2.17%	$3.58B	Benchmark Subject
AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.17%	$3.60B	/amlx-vs-acad →
OGN Organon & Co.	C-	61/100	19.4x	53.3%	24.9%	+0.22%	$3.63B	/ogn-vs-acad →
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.30%	$3.64B	/xene-vs-acad →
PBLS Parabilis Medicines Inc.	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+1.88%	$3.50B	/pbls-vs-acad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001070494

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $957.8M , and +47.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $391.0M, operating cash flow of $109.8M, and free cash flow of $105.1M (-33.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACAD closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.07B	$391.0M	$109.8M	$105.1M	$1.56B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$957.8M	$226.0M	$157.7M	$157.2M	$1.19B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$726.4M	-$61.0M	$16.7M	$16.7M	—	—

3. ACAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $20.76 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $3.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ACAD ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ACAD carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of 91.7%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.60B) and OGN (Organon & Co.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

Per ACAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001070494), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $391.0M in net income, and $105.1M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACAD last traded at $20.76 (+2.17% on volume of 2,193,872 shares), positioning the stock -12.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.74) and -12.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($23.68). Across its 52-week range of $18.39 to $30.96, ACAD sits at the 18.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($19.43 to $22.09).

ACAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ACAD stock right now?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 92% profit margin (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 9x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ACAD's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ACAD's 12-month base price target is $21.51 (range $16.78 to $32.51), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ACAD RQD Cockpit ACAD 12M Forecast ACAD Earnings & Move ACAD Dividends & DRIP ACAD Insiders & 13F ACAD Whale Options ACAD Profit Sankey ACAD News & Why