Stock Ratings / Health Care / ACAD / earnings

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.4% Move

$20.76 +2.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.80

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.58B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ACAD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $20.76 (+2.17% 1D, market cap $3.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ACAD ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ACAD carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of 91.7%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.60B) and OGN (Organon & Co.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

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Per ACAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001070494), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $391.0M in net income, and $105.1M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.80 (+0.20%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 9.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ACAD SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 19% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 9.8% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.78-3.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$19.12+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$19.73+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$20.76+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ACAD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, ACAD faces multiple-compression risk if 9.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 89.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.74) or 200D SMA ($23.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.51) toward Bear Floor ($16.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ACAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.4% Swing Band

±$1.33 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ACAD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 66/100

Trailing EPS: $2.27 • YoY Revenue Growth: 11.9%

Model Bullish Setup (66/100)Model Risk Weight (34/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.07B	$391.0M	$105.1M	91.7%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$957.8M	$226.0M	$157.2M	91.5%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$726.4M	-$61.0M	$16.7M	91.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ACAD & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ACAD
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ACAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.53%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.88H $21.01L $20.49C $20.76VOL 1.14M

RES: $35.99SUP: $17.06SMA50: $23.74SMA200: $23.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ACAD Butterfly Map → + Track ACAD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACAD)

Health Care Rank #127 of 1016 ⚔️ AMLX vs ACAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ACAD vs. AMLX, OGN, XENE, PBLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) ranks #127 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #193 by equity capitalization ($3.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACAD leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while OGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 53.3% gross margin. ACAD currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ACAD ACTIVE ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.	C+	66/100	9.1x	91.7%	7.9%	+2.17%	$3.58B	Benchmark Subject
AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.17%	$3.60B	/amlx-vs-acad →
OGN Organon & Co.	C-	61/100	19.4x	53.3%	24.9%	+0.22%	$3.63B	/ogn-vs-acad →
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.30%	$3.64B	/xene-vs-acad →
PBLS Parabilis Medicines Inc.	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+1.88%	$3.50B	/pbls-vs-acad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001070494

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $957.8M , and +47.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $391.0M, operating cash flow of $109.8M, and free cash flow of $105.1M (-33.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACAD closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.07B	$391.0M	$109.8M	$105.1M	$1.56B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$957.8M	$226.0M	$157.7M	$157.2M	$1.19B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$726.4M	-$61.0M	$16.7M	$16.7M	—	—

3. ACAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

Where is ACAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACAD last traded at $20.76 (+2.17% on volume of 2,193,872 shares), positioning the stock -12.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.74) and -12.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($23.68). Across its 52-week range of $18.39 to $30.96, ACAD sits at the 18.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($19.43 to $22.09).

ACAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ACAD's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ACAD stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.4% event move for ACAD, spanning a range between $19.43 and $22.09.

Direct Sub-Reports: ACAD RQD Cockpit ACAD 12M Forecast ACAD Earnings & Move ACAD Dividends & DRIP ACAD Insiders & 13F ACAD Whale Options ACAD Profit Sankey ACAD News & Why