MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AADX Stock surged +7.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.82 +7.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.04B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96 (+1.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AADX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AADX SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.4% FCF Margin ($57.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (21% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$11.45-0.7% Next Q
44
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$11.37-12% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$10.00+18.2% Next Q
49
CurrentGrade D+$11.82-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AADX Turnaround Squeeze
While AADX currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.06) and Max Pain ($12.41) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.45.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AADX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AADX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AADX Stock surged +7.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) surged +7.65% to $11.82, trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($9.4 – $24.24). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($9.4 – $24.24) with RSI-14 at 47.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $11.82 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $57.1M annual free cash flow.
Live AADX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AADX)
- ✓Walkthrough of AADX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AADX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.82%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.53H $11.87L $10.80C $11.82VOL 2.23M
RES: $19.17SUP: $9.08SMA50: $12.06SMA200: $15.93
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AADX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AADX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AADX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AADX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AADX)
Industrials Rank #270 of 485
⚔️ RDW vs AADX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AADX vs. RDW, VOYG, DCO, ATRO)
Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) ranks #270 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #210 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATRO leads on earnings valuation at 92.1x trailing P/E, while ATRO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. ATRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with AADX at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AADX
ACTIVE
Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | +7.65% | $2.04B | Benchmark Subject |
| RDW Redwire Corporation | E | 32/100 | — | 5.2% | -17.4% | +1.67% | $2.29B | /rdw-vs-aadx → |
| VOYG Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A) | E | 32/100 | — | 18.0% | -35.0% | +2.43% | $1.72B | /voyg-vs-aadx → |
| DCO Ducommun Incorporated | D | 46/100 | — | 26.9% | -3.1% | +2.61% | $2.54B | /dco-vs-aadx → |
| ATRO Astronics Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 92.1x | 29.9% | 13.2% | +3.85% | $2.70B | /atro-vs-aadx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002118195In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AADX closed FY2025 with $999.3M in total assets against $627.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $999.3M | $627.0M |
3. AADX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (NYSE: AADX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $11.82 (+7.65% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AADX ranks #270 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), AADX carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, RDW (Redwire Corporation) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.4%, cap $2.29B) and VOYG (Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?
Per AADX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002118195), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $999.3M in total assets and $627.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AADX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AADX last traded at $11.82 (+7.65% on volume of 2,123,998 shares), positioning the stock -1.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.06) and -25.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.93). Across its 52-week range of $9.40 to $24.24, AADX sits at the 16.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.34 to $13.30).
AADX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AADX stock moving today?
Why AADX Stock surged +7.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.