Stock Ratings / Industrials / AADX / financials

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Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$11.82 +7.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96

Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.04B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96 (+1.19%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AADX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AADX SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.4% FCF Margin ($57.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.45-0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$11.37-12% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.00+18.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$11.82-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AADX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AADX currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (9/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.06) and Max Pain ($12.41) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AADX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AADX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How AADX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$57.1M (1.4% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$0	$0	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AADX)

✓Walkthrough of AADX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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AADX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.82%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.53H $11.87L $10.80C $11.82VOL 2.23M

RES: $19.17SUP: $9.08SMA50: $12.06SMA200: $15.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AADX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AADX Butterfly Map → + Track AADX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AADX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AADX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AADX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AADX)

Industrials Rank #270 of 485 ⚔️ RDW vs AADX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (AADX vs. RDW, VOYG, DCO, ATRO)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) ranks #270 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #210 by equity capitalization ($2.04B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ATRO leads on earnings valuation at 92.1x trailing P/E, while ATRO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.2% ROIC and 29.9% gross margin. ATRO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with AADX at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AADX ACTIVE Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+7.65%	$2.04B	Benchmark Subject
RDW Redwire Corporation	E	32/100	—	5.2%	-17.4%	+1.67%	$2.29B	/rdw-vs-aadx →
VOYG Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)	E	32/100	—	18.0%	-35.0%	+2.43%	$1.72B	/voyg-vs-aadx →
DCO Ducommun Incorporated	D	46/100	—	26.9%	-3.1%	+2.61%	$2.54B	/dco-vs-aadx →
ATRO Astronics Corporation	C-	59/100	92.1x	29.9%	13.2%	+3.85%	$2.70B	/atro-vs-aadx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002118195

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, AADX closed FY2025 with $999.3M in total assets against $627.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$999.3M	$627.0M

3. AADX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AADX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (NYSE: AADX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $11.82 (+7.65% 1D, market cap $2.04B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, AADX ranks #270 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AADX compare to RDW and VOYG in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), AADX carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, RDW (Redwire Corporation) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.4%, cap $2.29B) and VOYG (Voyager Technologies Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ATRO leads on earnings multiple (92.1x) while ATRO leads on capital efficiency (13.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AADX?

Per AADX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002118195), Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $999.3M in total assets and $627.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AADX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AADX last traded at $11.82 (+7.65% on volume of 2,123,998 shares), positioning the stock -1.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.06) and -25.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.93). Across its 52-week range of $9.40 to $24.24, AADX sits at the 16.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.34 to $13.30).

AADX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. (AADX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), AADX converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $57.1M in free cash flow (1.4% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: AADX RQD Cockpit AADX 12M Forecast AADX Earnings & Move AADX Dividends & DRIP AADX Insiders & 13F AADX Whale Options AADX Profit Sankey AADX News & Why