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Forestar Group Inc (FOR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$25.03 -3.43% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 30/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.28B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FOR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Forestar Group Inc (NYSE: FOR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 30/100 at a spot price of $25.03 (-3.43% 1D, market cap $1.28B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FOR ranks #1025 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOR compare to IIPR and EFC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), FOR carries a Roarable E (30/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.4%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.47B) and EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 8.2%, cap $1.52B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

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Per FOR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001406587), Forestar Group Inc generated $1.66B in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $167.9M in net income, and -$199.9M in free cash flow against $3.18B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $24.83 (-0.81%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (30/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (30/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FOR SCORES 30/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+7/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 35% Net Buy • Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.7) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$25.01+0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$25.10+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$25.98-3.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$25.03-9.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (22) → E (30)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOR currently carries a cautious 30/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.43) and Max Pain ($26.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FOR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 30%NO 70%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE24% OF RANGE

L: $23$25.03H: $32

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FOR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

9.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -15.65% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (23)

11/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FOR

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOR)

✓Walkthrough of FOR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FOR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.57%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $25.92H $25.92L $25.03C $25.03VOL 345.6K

RES: $26.19SUP: $24.24SMA50: $26.43SMA200: $27.41

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOR Butterfly Map → + Track FOR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOR)

Financials Rank #1025 of 1096 ⚔️ IIPR vs FOR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FOR vs. IIPR, EFC, MMI, BXDC)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forestar Group Inc (FOR) ranks #1025 by composite RQD confidence (30/100, grade E) and #514 by equity capitalization ($1.28B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with FOR at 30/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FOR ACTIVE Forestar Group Inc	E	30/100	7.6x	—	9.4%	-3.43%	$1.28B	Benchmark Subject
IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.	C-	59/100	12.5x	—	5.4%	+1.14%	$1.47B	/iipr-vs-for →
EFC Ellington Financial Inc.	D-	36/100	10.1x	—	8.2%	+0.77%	$1.52B	/efc-vs-for →
MMI Marcus & Millichap Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	-1.8%	+0.65%	$1.06B	/mmi-vs-for →
BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	+0.37%	$1.63B	/bxdc-vs-for →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001406587

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Forestar Group Inc (FOR) reported GAAP revenue of $1.66B (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.51B , and +15.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $167.9M, operating cash flow of -$197.7M, and free cash flow of -$199.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOR closed FY2025 with $3.18B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.66B	$167.9M	-$197.7M	-$199.9M	$3.18B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.51B	$203.4M	-$158.4M	-$160.6M	$2.96B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.44B	$166.9M	$364.1M	$364.1M	—	—

3. FOR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FOR compare to IIPR and EFC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOR?

Where is FOR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOR last traded at $25.03 (-3.43% on volume of 345,625 shares), positioning the stock -5.30% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.43) and -8.68% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.41). Across its 52-week range of $22.81 to $32.06, FOR sits at the 24.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($23.25 to $26.81).

FOR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FOR stock right now?

Forestar Group Inc (FOR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 30/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is FOR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FOR's 12-month base price target is $21.88 (range $17.07 to $33.66), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FOR RQD Cockpit FOR 12M Forecast FOR Earnings & Move FOR Dividends & DRIP FOR Insiders & 13F FOR Whale Options FOR Profit Sankey FOR News & Why