Stock Ratings / Health Care / VRCA / earnings

XBIT (37) RFL (16) BOLD (41) APLM (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$3.35 -2.05% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33

Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $58.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VRCA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VRCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-02, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: VRCA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $3.35 (-2.05% 1D, market cap $58.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, VRCA ranks #445 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VRCA compare to XBIT and RFL in the Health Care sector?

▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), VRCA carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, XBIT (XBiotech Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $59.1M) and RFL (Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRCA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while VRCA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRCA?

▼

Per VRCA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001660334), Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $35.6M in revenue (+370.2% YoY), -$17.9M in net income, and -$17.6M in free cash flow against $47.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33 (-0.56%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRCA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VRCA SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (30% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$4.11-12.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$3.60-1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.53-5.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.35-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VRCA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VRCA currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.41) and Max Pain ($3.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.31.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRCA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VRCA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.42 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

VRCA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$35.6M	-$17.9M	-$17.6M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$7.6M	-$76.6M	-$61.0M	65.6%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$5.1M	-$67.0M	-$38.6M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VRCA)

✓Walkthrough of VRCA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VRCA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.41%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $3.42H $3.49L $3.25C $3.35VOL 33.8K

RES: $4.72SUP: $3.07SMA50: $4.41SMA200: $5.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VRCA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VRCA Butterfly Map → + Track VRCA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRCA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRCA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRCA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRCA)

Health Care Rank #445 of 1016 ⚔️ XBIT vs VRCA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (VRCA vs. XBIT, RFL, BOLD, APLM)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA) ranks #445 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #726 by equity capitalization ($58.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRCA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while VRCA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. APLM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with VRCA at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VRCA ACTIVE Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.05%	$58.8M	Benchmark Subject
XBIT XBiotech Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.09%	$59.1M	/xbit-vs-vrca →
RFL Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)	E	16/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.57%	$58.2M	/rfl-vs-vrca →
BOLD Boundless Bio Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.40%	$57.3M	/bold-vs-vrca →
APLM Apollomics Inc. (Class A)	C	62/100	—	—	—	-0.53%	$60.2M	/aplm-vs-vrca →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001660334

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA) reported GAAP revenue of $35.6M (+370.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.6M , and +594.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$17.9M, operating cash flow of -$17.6M, and free cash flow of -$17.6M (+71.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRCA closed FY2025 with $47.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$35.6M	-$17.9M	-$17.6M	-$17.6M	$47.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$7.6M	-$76.6M	-$60.9M	-$61.0M	$54.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.1M	-$67.0M	-$38.6M	-$38.6M	—	—

3. VRCA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VRCA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does VRCA compare to XBIT and RFL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRCA?

Where is VRCA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VRCA last traded at $3.35 (-2.05% on volume of 33,791 shares), positioning the stock -24.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.41) and -40.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.61). Across its 52-week range of $3.25 to $9.82, VRCA sits at the 1.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.93 to $3.77).

VRCA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is VRCA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRCA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is VRCA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for VRCA, spanning a range between $2.93 and $3.77.

Direct Sub-Reports: VRCA RQD Cockpit VRCA 12M Forecast VRCA Earnings & Move VRCA Dividends & DRIP VRCA Insiders & 13F VRCA Whale Options VRCA Profit Sankey VRCA News & Why