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Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell RFL stock right now?

Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 18/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is RFL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RFL's 12-month base price target is $0.92 (range $0.72 to $4.16), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$1.12 -7.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10

Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 18/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $58.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10 (-1.53%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-17.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RFL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (18/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RFL SCORES 18/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (44% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$1.60-13.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$1.39-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$1.31-14.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$1.12-12.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (26) → E (18)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RFL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RFL currently carries a cautious 18/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.83) and Max Pain ($1.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RFL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RFL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 18%NO 82%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

27.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $1$1.12H: $4

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 1 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 7 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on RFL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (18)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (25)

7/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RFL

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RFL)

✓Walkthrough of RFL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

RFL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.81%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1.15H $1.23L $1.08C $1.12VOL 67.2K

RES: $1.60SUP: $0.85SMA50: $1.83SMA200: $1.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RFL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RFL Butterfly Map → + Track RFL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RFL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RFL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RFL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RFL)

Health Care Rank #1016 of 1016 ⚔️ VRCA vs RFL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RFL vs. VRCA, XBIT, BOLD, HYFT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) ranks #1016 by composite RQD confidence (18/100, grade E) and #727 by equity capitalization ($58.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RFL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while RFL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with RFL at 18/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RFL ACTIVE Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)	E	18/100	—	—	-35.0%	-7.44%	$58.2M	Benchmark Subject
VRCA Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.72%	$58.8M	/vrca-vs-rfl →
XBIT XBiotech Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.51%	$59.1M	/xbit-vs-rfl →
BOLD Boundless Bio Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.80%	$57.3M	/bold-vs-rfl →
HYFT MindWalk Holdings Corp.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+1.70%	$57.1M	/hyft-vs-rfl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-07-31 • CIK 0001713863

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31), Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) reported GAAP revenue of $30.0K (-95.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $637.0K , and -89.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.5M, operating cash flow of -$18.9M, and free cash flow of -$18.9M (-138.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RFL closed FY2025 with $99.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-07-31	$30.0K	-$30.5M	-$18.9M	-$18.9M	$99.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-07-31	$637.0K	-$34.4M	-$7.8M	-$7.9M	$83.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-07-31	$279.0K	-$1.9M	-$10.9M	-$10.9M	—	—

3. RFL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RFL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (NYSE: RFL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-7.44% 1D, market cap $58.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RFL ranks #1016 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RFL compare to VRCA and XBIT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RFL carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRCA (Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.8M) and XBIT (XBiotech Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $59.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RFL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RFL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RFL?

Per RFL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0001713863), Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) generated $30.0K in revenue (-95.3% YoY), -$30.5M in net income, and -$18.9M in free cash flow against $99.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RFL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RFL last traded at $1.12 (-7.44% on volume of 139,513 shares), positioning the stock -38.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.83) and -33.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.68). Across its 52-week range of $1.08 to $3.96, RFL sits at the 1.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.26).

RFL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell RFL stock right now?

Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 18/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is RFL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RFL's 12-month base price target is $0.92 (range $0.72 to $4.16), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: RFL RQD Cockpit RFL 12M Forecast RFL Earnings & Move RFL Dividends & DRIP RFL Insiders & 13F RFL Whale Options RFL Profit Sankey RFL News & Why