MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Oil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war - ReutersOil slips more than 1% as talks continue on ending Iran war Reuters
Why RFL Stock dropped -7.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.12 -7.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10
Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 18/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $58.2M
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER
Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RFL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is RFL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-01, Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (NYSE: RFL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-7.44% 1D, market cap $58.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RFL ranks #1016 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does RFL compare to VRCA and XBIT in the Health Care sector?
▼
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RFL carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRCA (Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.8M) and XBIT (XBiotech Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $59.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RFL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RFL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RFL?
▼
Per RFL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0001713863), Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) generated $30.0K in revenue (-95.3% YoY), -$30.5M in net income, and -$18.9M in free cash flow against $99.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.10 (-1.53%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-17.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RFL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (18/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RFL SCORES 18/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (44% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$1.60-13.1% Next Q
26
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$1.39-5.8% Next Q
23
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$1.31-14.5% Next Q
21
CurrentGrade E$1.12-12.2% Hist 90D α
18
Trajectory: E (26) → E (18)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RFL Turnaround Squeeze
While RFL currently carries a cautious 18/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.83) and Max Pain ($1.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.16.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RFL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RFL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why RFL Stock dropped -7.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) dropped -7.44% to $1.12, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.08 – $3.96). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($1.08 – $3.96) with RSI-14 at 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.12 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live RFL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
Nine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say - ReutersNine people dead in Learjet crash in south Florida, officials say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 7h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 8h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RFL)
- ✓Walkthrough of RFL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
RFL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.81%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $1.15H $1.23L $1.08C $1.12VOL 67.2K
RES: $1.60SUP: $0.85SMA50: $1.83SMA200: $1.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
RFL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RFL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RFL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RFL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RFL)
Health Care Rank #1016 of 1016
⚔️ VRCA vs RFL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (RFL vs. VRCA, XBIT, BOLD, HYFT)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) ranks #1016 by composite RQD confidence (18/100, grade E) and #727 by equity capitalization ($58.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RFL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while RFL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with RFL at 18/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFL
ACTIVE
Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) | E | 18/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -7.44% | $58.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| VRCA Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.72% | $58.8M | /vrca-vs-rfl → |
| XBIT XBiotech Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.51% | $59.1M | /xbit-vs-rfl → |
| BOLD Boundless Bio Inc. | D- | 41/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.80% | $57.3M | /bold-vs-rfl → |
| HYFT MindWalk Holdings Corp. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | +1.70% | $57.1M | /hyft-vs-rfl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-07-31 • CIK 0001713863In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31), Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (RFL) reported GAAP revenue of $30.0K (-95.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $637.0K , and -89.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.5M, operating cash flow of -$18.9M, and free cash flow of -$18.9M (-138.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RFL closed FY2025 with $99.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-07-31 | $30.0K | -$30.5M | -$18.9M | -$18.9M | $99.3M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-07-31 | $637.0K | -$34.4M | -$7.8M | -$7.9M | $83.0M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-07-31 | $279.0K | -$1.9M | -$10.9M | -$10.9M | — | — |
3. RFL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs RFL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) (NYSE: RFL) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-7.44% 1D, market cap $58.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, RFL ranks #1016 in composite RQD confidence.
How does RFL compare to VRCA and XBIT in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), RFL carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRCA (Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.8M) and XBIT (XBiotech Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $59.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RFL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while RFL leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RFL?
Per RFL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0001713863), Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B) generated $30.0K in revenue (-95.3% YoY), -$30.5M in net income, and -$18.9M in free cash flow against $99.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is RFL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
RFL last traded at $1.12 (-7.44% on volume of 139,513 shares), positioning the stock -38.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.83) and -33.33% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.68). Across its 52-week range of $1.08 to $3.96, RFL sits at the 1.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.8 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.26).
RFL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is RFL stock moving today?
Why RFL Stock dropped -7.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.