Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table
Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, VEL faces multiple-compression risk if 6.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.17) or 200D SMA ($17.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.02) toward Bear Floor ($12.50).
Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) surged +2.44% to $15.95, trading at 25% of its 52-week range ($14.18 – $21.4). Solid steady margins (16% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., October 22, 2026--Velocity Financial, Inc. (NYSE:VEL) ("Velocity" or "Company"), a leader in investor real estate loans, will release its third quarter 2026 results after the market close on Wed
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VEL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) ranks #555 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #654 by equity capitalization ($629.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VEL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while GAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 31.0% ROIC and — gross margin. QFIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with VEL at 59/100 (C-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VEL
ACTIVE
Velocity Financial Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 6.0x | — | 15.6% | +2.44% | $629.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| QFIN Qfin Holdings Inc. | C | 65/100 | — | — | 27.2% | -4.01% | $641.6M | /qfin-vs-vel → |
| TRON Tron Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | — | -0.9% | -11.40% | $645.2M | /tron-vs-vel → |
| GAIN Gladstone Investment Corporation Business Development Company | D | 49/100 | — | — | 31.0% | +1.26% | $608.1M | /gain-vs-vel → |
| FINV FinVolution Group | C- | 60/100 | — | — | 15.4% | +0.71% | $672.9M | /finv-vs-vel → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $105.0M, operating cash flow of $18.2M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (-52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VEL closed FY2025 with $7.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $105.0M | $18.2M | $17.9M | $7.38B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $68.4M | $37.8M | $37.5M | $5.53B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $52.3M | $48.8M | $48.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Velocity Financial Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $15.95 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $629.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, VEL ranks #555 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), VEL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, QFIN (Qfin Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 27.2%, cap $641.6M) and TRON (Tron Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $645.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VEL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while GAIN leads on capital efficiency (31.0% ROIC).
Per VEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692376), Velocity Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $105.0M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $7.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
VEL last traded at $15.95 (+2.44% on volume of 190,798 shares), positioning the stock -1.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.17) and -10.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.80). Across its 52-week range of $14.18 to $21.40, VEL sits at the 24.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($14.90 to $17.00).
Why VEL Stock surged +2.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (16% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
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