Stock Ratings / Financials / VEL / dividends

QFIN (54) TRON (26) GAIN (37) FINV (47) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$15.95 +2.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.99

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $629.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VEL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Velocity Financial Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $15.95 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $629.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, VEL ranks #676 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VEL compare to QFIN and TRON in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), VEL carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, QFIN (Qfin Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 27.2%, cap $641.6M) and TRON (Tron Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $645.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VEL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while GAIN leads on capital efficiency (31.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VEL?

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Per VEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692376), Velocity Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $105.0M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $7.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.99 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VEL SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.9) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$14.56-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$14.51+6.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$15.41+3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D$15.95-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VEL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VEL currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.12) and Max Pain ($16.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.47.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.7K

Yr 1

$11.4K

Yr 2

$12.2K

Yr 3

$13.0K

Yr 4

$13.9K

Yr 5

$14.8K

Yr 6

$15.8K

Yr 7

$16.9K

Yr 8

$18.1K

Yr 9

$19.3K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VEL)

✓Walkthrough of VEL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.62%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $15.57H $15.95L $15.57C $15.95VOL 190.8K

RES: $18.38SUP: $13.05SMA50: $16.12SMA200: $17.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VEL Butterfly Map → + Track VEL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VEL)

Financials Rank #676 of 1096 ⚔️ QFIN vs VEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (VEL vs. QFIN, TRON, GAIN, FINV)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) ranks #676 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #654 by equity capitalization ($629.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VEL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while GAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 31.0% ROIC and — gross margin. QFIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with VEL at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VEL ACTIVE Velocity Financial Inc.	D	50/100	6.0x	—	15.6%	+2.44%	$629.7M	Benchmark Subject
QFIN Qfin Holdings Inc.	D+	54/100	—	—	27.2%	-4.01%	$641.6M	/qfin-vs-vel →
TRON Tron Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-0.9%	-11.40%	$645.2M	/tron-vs-vel →
GAIN Gladstone Investment Corporation Business Development Company	D-	37/100	—	—	31.0%	+1.26%	$608.1M	/gain-vs-vel →
FINV FinVolution Group	D	47/100	—	—	15.4%	+0.71%	$672.9M	/finv-vs-vel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001692376

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $105.0M, operating cash flow of $18.2M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (-52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VEL closed FY2025 with $7.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$105.0M	$18.2M	$17.9M	$7.38B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$68.4M	$37.8M	$37.5M	$5.53B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$52.3M	$48.8M	$48.8M	—	—

3. VEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does VEL compare to QFIN and TRON in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VEL?

Where is VEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VEL last traded at $15.95 (+2.44% on volume of 190,798 shares), positioning the stock -1.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.12) and -10.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.78). Across its 52-week range of $14.18 to $21.40, VEL sits at the 24.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($14.90 to $17.00).

VEL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does VEL pay a dividend and is it safe?

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: VEL RQD Cockpit VEL 12M Forecast VEL Earnings & Move VEL Dividends & DRIP VEL Insiders & 13F VEL Whale Options VEL Profit Sankey VEL News & Why