Stock Ratings / Financials / VEL / forecast

QFIN (65) TRON (26) GAIN (49) FINV (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.95 +2.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.99

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $629.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.99 (+0.25%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VEL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VEL SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$14.73-0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$14.71+4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$15.30+4.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$15.95+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VEL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, VEL faces multiple-compression risk if 6.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($16.17) or 200D SMA ($17.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.02) toward Bear Floor ($12.50).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VEL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VEL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your VEL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.95: 627.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.50

$7,837

$-2,163 (-21.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.02

$10,044

+$44 (+0.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $22.47

$14,088

+$4,088 (+40.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$17	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$21	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$14	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (VEL Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.31%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $16.09H $16.11L $15.48C $15.95VOL 116.1K

RES: $18.39SUP: $12.97SMA50: $16.17SMA200: $17.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VEL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VEL Butterfly Map → + Track VEL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VEL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VEL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VEL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VEL)

Financials Rank #555 of 1096 ⚔️ QFIN vs VEL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (VEL vs. QFIN, TRON, GAIN, FINV)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) ranks #555 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #654 by equity capitalization ($629.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VEL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while GAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 31.0% ROIC and — gross margin. QFIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with VEL at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VEL ACTIVE Velocity Financial Inc.	C-	59/100	6.0x	—	15.6%	+2.44%	$629.7M	Benchmark Subject
QFIN Qfin Holdings Inc.	C	65/100	—	—	27.2%	-4.01%	$641.6M	/qfin-vs-vel →
TRON Tron Inc.	E	26/100	—	—	-0.9%	-11.40%	$645.2M	/tron-vs-vel →
GAIN Gladstone Investment Corporation Business Development Company	D	49/100	—	—	31.0%	+1.26%	$608.1M	/gain-vs-vel →
FINV FinVolution Group	C-	60/100	—	—	15.4%	+0.71%	$672.9M	/finv-vs-vel →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001692376

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $105.0M, operating cash flow of $18.2M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (-52.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VEL closed FY2025 with $7.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$105.0M	$18.2M	$17.9M	$7.38B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$68.4M	$37.8M	$37.5M	$5.53B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$52.3M	$48.8M	$48.8M	—	—

3. VEL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Velocity Financial Inc. (NYSE: VEL) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $15.95 (+2.44% 1D, market cap $629.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, VEL ranks #555 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VEL compare to QFIN and TRON in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), VEL carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.6%. By comparison, QFIN (Qfin Holdings Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 27.2%, cap $641.6M) and TRON (Tron Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $645.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VEL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while GAIN leads on capital efficiency (31.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VEL?

Per VEL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692376), Velocity Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $105.0M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $7.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VEL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VEL last traded at $15.95 (+2.44% on volume of 190,798 shares), positioning the stock -1.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.17) and -10.39% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.80). Across its 52-week range of $14.18 to $21.40, VEL sits at the 24.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($14.90 to $17.00).

VEL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is VEL's 12-month stock price target?

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.02 (+0.4% from $15.95), with a bull-case target of $22.47 and a bear-case floor of $12.5.

Is VEL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates VEL C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 59/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: VEL RQD Cockpit VEL 12M Forecast VEL Earnings & Move VEL Dividends & DRIP VEL Insiders & 13F VEL Whale Options VEL Profit Sankey VEL News & Why