Stock Ratings / Financials / TSBK / options

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Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$47.26 +0.38% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $367.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TSBK SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$44.82+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$45.54+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$46.75+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$47.26+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, TSBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.88) or 200D SMA ($42.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.02) toward Bear Floor ($38.75).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TSBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TSBK)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TSBK.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TSBK & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TSBK
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TSBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.51%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $47.71H $47.71L $46.75C $47.26VOL 15.5K

RES: $48.54SUP: $44.35SMA50: $45.88SMA200: $42.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TSBK Butterfly Map → + Track TSBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSBK)

Financials Rank #126 of 1096 ⚔️ FSBW vs TSBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TSBK vs. FSBW, NECB, PBFS, AVBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) ranks #126 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #771 by equity capitalization ($367.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TSBK at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TSBK ACTIVE Timberland Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+0.38%	$367.5M	Benchmark Subject
FSBW FS Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	10.5x	—	10.8%	+1.33%	$348.6M	/fsbw-vs-tsbk →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.15%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-tsbk →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	C-	59/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+0.28%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-tsbk →
AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-0.9%	+1.20%	$470.1M	/avbc-vs-tsbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001046050

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $29.2M, operating cash flow of $30.2M, and free cash flow of $28.4M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSBK closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$29.2M	$30.2M	$28.4M	$2.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$24.3M	$23.0M	$21.7M	$1.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$27.1M	$31.0M	$31.0M	—	—

3. TSBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $47.26 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $367.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #126 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $348.6M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?

Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TSBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSBK last traded at $47.26 (+0.38% on volume of 25,568 shares), positioning the stock +3.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($45.88) and +11.67% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.32). Across its 52-week range of $31.85 to $49.38, TSBK sits at the 87.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($44.76 to $49.76).

TSBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TSBK's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TSBK.

Direct Sub-Reports: TSBK RQD Cockpit TSBK 12M Forecast TSBK Earnings & Move TSBK Dividends & DRIP TSBK Insiders & 13F TSBK Whale Options TSBK Profit Sankey TSBK News & Why