Stock Ratings / Financials / TSBK / forecast

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Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$47.26 +0.38% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.20

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $367.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TSBK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $47.26 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $367.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #164 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $348.6M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?

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Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.20 (-0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TSBK SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($28.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.4) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$45.27+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$45.39+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$46.90+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$47.26+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TSBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.89) or 200D SMA ($42.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($49.60) toward Bear Floor ($38.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TSBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TSBK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $47.26: 211.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $38.69

$8,187

$-1,813 (-18.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $49.60

$10,495

+$495 (+5.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $58.53

$12,385

+$2,385 (+23.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$52	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$55	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$44	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TSBK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TSBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.39%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-11-02O $47.08H $47.26L $47.08C $47.26VOL 25.6K

RES: $48.52SUP: $44.40SMA50: $45.89SMA200: $42.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TSBK Butterfly Map → + Track TSBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSBK)

Financials Rank #164 of 1096 ⚔️ FSBW vs TSBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TSBK vs. FSBW, NECB, PBFS, AVBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) ranks #164 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #771 by equity capitalization ($367.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with TSBK at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TSBK ACTIVE Timberland Bancorp Inc.	C+	69/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+0.38%	$367.5M	Benchmark Subject
FSBW FS Bancorp Inc.	C+	66/100	10.5x	—	10.8%	+1.33%	$348.6M	/fsbw-vs-tsbk →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.15%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-tsbk →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+0.28%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-tsbk →
AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-0.9%	+1.20%	$470.1M	/avbc-vs-tsbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001046050

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $29.2M, operating cash flow of $30.2M, and free cash flow of $28.4M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSBK closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$29.2M	$30.2M	$28.4M	$2.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$24.3M	$23.0M	$21.7M	$1.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$27.1M	$31.0M	$31.0M	—	—

3. TSBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?

Where is TSBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSBK last traded at $47.26 (+0.38% on volume of 25,568 shares), positioning the stock +2.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($45.89) and +11.54% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.37). Across its 52-week range of $31.45 to $49.38, TSBK sits at the 88.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($44.85 to $49.67).

TSBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TSBK's 12-month stock price target?

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $49.6 (+5% from $47.26), with a bull-case target of $58.53 and a bear-case floor of $38.69.

Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TSBK C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 69/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TSBK RQD Cockpit TSBK 12M Forecast TSBK Earnings & Move TSBK Dividends & DRIP TSBK Insiders & 13F TSBK Whale Options TSBK Profit Sankey TSBK News & Why