MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TSBK Stock advanced +0.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$47.26 +0.38% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41
Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $367.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TSBK SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$44.82+1.6% Next Q
63
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$45.54+2.7% Next Q
66
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$46.75+1.1% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade B-$47.26+6.8% Hist 90D α
71
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSBK Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, TSBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.88) or 200D SMA ($42.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.02) toward Bear Floor ($38.75).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TSBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TSBK Stock advanced +0.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) advanced +0.38% to $47.26, trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($31.85 – $49.38). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 88% of its 52-week range ($31.85 – $49.38) with RSI-14 at 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.3% around $47.26 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $28.4M annual free cash flow.
Live TSBK Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TSBK Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TSBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.51%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $47.71H $47.71L $46.75C $47.26VOL 15.5K
RES: $48.54SUP: $44.35SMA50: $45.88SMA200: $42.32
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TSBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSBK today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSBK)
Financials Rank #126 of 1096
⚔️ FSBW vs TSBK Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TSBK vs. FSBW, NECB, PBFS, AVBC)
Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) ranks #126 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #771 by equity capitalization ($367.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TSBK at 71/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSBK
ACTIVE
Timberland Bancorp Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 12.6x | — | 10.9% | +0.38% | $367.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| FSBW FS Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 10.5x | — | 10.8% | +1.33% | $348.6M | /fsbw-vs-tsbk → |
| NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc. | B | 72/100 | 9.0x | — | 12.6% | +1.15% | $398.8M | /necb-vs-tsbk → |
| PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 22.2x | — | 6.3% | +0.28% | $450.1M | /pbfs-vs-tsbk → |
| AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | -0.9% | +1.20% | $470.1M | /avbc-vs-tsbk → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001046050In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $29.2M, operating cash flow of $30.2M, and free cash flow of $28.4M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSBK closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $0 | $29.2M | $30.2M | $28.4M | $2.01B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $0 | $24.3M | $23.0M | $21.7M | $1.91B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $0 | $27.1M | $31.0M | $31.0M | — | — |
3. TSBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $47.26 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $367.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #126 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $348.6M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?
Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TSBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TSBK last traded at $47.26 (+0.38% on volume of 25,568 shares), positioning the stock +3.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($45.88) and +11.67% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.32). Across its 52-week range of $31.85 to $49.38, TSBK sits at the 87.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($44.76 to $49.76).
TSBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TSBK stock moving today?
Why TSBK Stock advanced +0.38% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support.