Stock Ratings / Financials / TSBK / earnings

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Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.3% Move

$47.26 +0.38% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41

Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $367.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $47.41 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TSBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TSBK SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$44.82+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$45.54+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$46.75+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$47.26+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TSBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, TSBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($45.88) or 200D SMA ($42.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($50.02) toward Bear Floor ($38.75).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TSBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TSBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.3% Swing Band

±$2.50 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TSBK Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 71/100

Trailing EPS: $3.75 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (71/100)Model Risk Weight (29/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$0	$29.2M	$28.4M	52%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$0	$24.3M	$21.7M	52%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$0	$27.1M	$31.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TSBK & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TSBK
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TSBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.51%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $47.71H $47.71L $46.75C $47.26VOL 15.5K

RES: $48.54SUP: $44.35SMA50: $45.88SMA200: $42.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TSBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TSBK Butterfly Map → + Track TSBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TSBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TSBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TSBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TSBK)

Financials Rank #126 of 1096 ⚔️ FSBW vs TSBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TSBK vs. FSBW, NECB, PBFS, AVBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) ranks #126 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #771 by equity capitalization ($367.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TSBK at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TSBK ACTIVE Timberland Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+0.38%	$367.5M	Benchmark Subject
FSBW FS Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	10.5x	—	10.8%	+1.33%	$348.6M	/fsbw-vs-tsbk →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.15%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-tsbk →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	C-	59/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+0.28%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-tsbk →
AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-0.9%	+1.20%	$470.1M	/avbc-vs-tsbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001046050

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $29.2M, operating cash flow of $30.2M, and free cash flow of $28.4M (+30.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TSBK closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$29.2M	$30.2M	$28.4M	$2.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$24.3M	$23.0M	$21.7M	$1.91B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$27.1M	$31.0M	$31.0M	—	—

3. TSBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TSBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: TSBK) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $47.26 (+0.38% 1D, market cap $367.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TSBK ranks #126 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TSBK compare to FSBW and NECB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), TSBK carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, FSBW (FS Bancorp Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $348.6M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TSBK?

Per TSBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001046050), Timberland Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $29.2M in net income, and $28.4M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TSBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TSBK last traded at $47.26 (+0.38% on volume of 25,568 shares), positioning the stock +3.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($45.88) and +11.67% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.32). Across its 52-week range of $31.85 to $49.38, TSBK sits at the 87.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($44.76 to $49.76).

TSBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TSBK's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Timberland Bancorp Inc. (TSBK)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is TSBK stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.3% event move for TSBK, spanning a range between $44.76 and $49.76.

Direct Sub-Reports: TSBK RQD Cockpit TSBK 12M Forecast TSBK Earnings & Move TSBK Dividends & DRIP TSBK Insiders & 13F TSBK Whale Options TSBK Profit Sankey TSBK News & Why