Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TPVG / earnings

FC (53) WW (45) KLC (24) ABLV (66) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.4% Move

$4.53 -0.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.52

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $185.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPVG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TPVG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE: TPVG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $4.53 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $185.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TPVG ranks #723 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TPVG compare to FC and WW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), TPVG carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, FC (Franklin Covey Company) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 68.0x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $208.5M) and WW (WW International Inc.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $150.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TPVG leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while WW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPVG?

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Per TPVG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580345), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $49.2M in net income, and -$57.0M in free cash flow against $839.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.52 (-0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPVG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TPVG SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.65-5.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.38-1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$4.31+5.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$4.53-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TPVG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TPVG currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.84) and Max Pain ($4.76) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPVG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TPVG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.4% Swing Band

±$0.29 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TPVG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 41/100

Trailing EPS: $1.21 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (41/100)Model Risk Weight (59/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$49.2M	-$57.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$32.0M	$152.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$39.8M	$106.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TPVG)

✓Walkthrough of TPVG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TPVG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.25%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $4.46H $4.55L $4.46C $4.53VOL 143.4K

RES: $5.27SUP: $4.12SMA50: $4.84SMA200: $5.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPVG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPVG Butterfly Map → + Track TPVG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPVG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPVG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPVG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPVG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #723 of 1011 ⚔️ FC vs TPVG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TPVG vs. FC, WW, KLC, ABLV)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) ranks #723 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #703 by equity capitalization ($185.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TPVG leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while WW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ABLV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with TPVG at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TPVG ACTIVE TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.	D-	41/100	3.8x	—	13.9%	-0.44%	$185.2M	Benchmark Subject
FC Franklin Covey Company	D+	53/100	68.0x	76.2%	12.4%	-1.95%	$208.5M	/fc-vs-tpvg →
WW WW International Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	85.0%	-1.00%	$150.5M	/ww-vs-tpvg →
KLC KinderCare Learning Companies Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-1.0%	-0.98%	$243.0M	/klc-vs-tpvg →
ABLV Able View Global Inc. (Class B)	C+	66/100	—	11.3%	-5.5%	+10.20%	$140.8M	/ablv-vs-tpvg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001580345

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $49.2M, operating cash flow of -$57.0M, and free cash flow of -$57.0M (-137.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPVG closed FY2025 with $839.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$49.2M	-$57.0M	-$57.0M	$839.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$32.0M	$152.9M	$152.9M	$763.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$39.8M	$106.1M	$106.1M	—	—

3. TPVG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPVG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TPVG compare to FC and WW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPVG?

Where is TPVG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPVG last traded at $4.53 (-0.44% on volume of 155,543 shares), positioning the stock -6.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.84) and -12.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.19). Across its 52-week range of $4.15 to $6.95, TPVG sits at the 13.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.4% ($4.24 to $4.82).