Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TPVG

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TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$4.55 +2.02% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.56

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $185.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.56 (+0.17%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPVG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TPVG SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 14% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$4.70-6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$4.42-2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$4.29+6.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$4.55-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPVG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, TPVG faces multiple-compression risk if 3.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.86) or 200D SMA ($5.20) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($4.51) toward Bear Floor ($3.52).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPVG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TPVG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE14% OF RANGE

L: $4$4.55H: $7

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TPVG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

13.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TPVG

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TPVG)

✓Walkthrough of TPVG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TPVG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.82%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $4.57H $4.57L $4.46C $4.55VOL 155.5K

RES: $5.27SUP: $4.12SMA50: $4.86SMA200: $5.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPVG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPVG Butterfly Map → + Track TPVG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPVG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPVG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPVG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPVG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #520 of 1011 ⚔️ FC vs TPVG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TPVG vs. FC, WW, KLC, ABLV)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) ranks #520 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #703 by equity capitalization ($185.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TPVG leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while WW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ABLV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with TPVG at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TPVG ACTIVE TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.	D+	56/100	3.8x	—	13.9%	+2.02%	$185.2M	Benchmark Subject
FC Franklin Covey Company	D+	55/100	68.0x	76.2%	12.4%	+0.38%	$208.5M	/fc-vs-tpvg →
WW WW International Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	85.0%	+4.59%	$150.5M	/ww-vs-tpvg →
KLC KinderCare Learning Companies Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-1.0%	+5.13%	$243.0M	/klc-vs-tpvg →
ABLV Able View Global Inc. (Class B)	C	65/100	—	11.3%	-5.5%	+7.60%	$140.8M	/ablv-vs-tpvg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001580345

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $49.2M, operating cash flow of -$57.0M, and free cash flow of -$57.0M (-137.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPVG closed FY2025 with $839.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$49.2M	-$57.0M	-$57.0M	$839.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$32.0M	$152.9M	$152.9M	$763.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$39.8M	$106.1M	$106.1M	—	—

3. TPVG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPVG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (NYSE: TPVG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $4.55 (+2.02% 1D, market cap $185.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TPVG ranks #520 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPVG compare to FC and WW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Consumer Services), TPVG carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 3.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, FC (Franklin Covey Company) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 68.0x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $208.5M) and WW (WW International Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $150.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TPVG leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while WW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPVG?

Per TPVG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001580345), TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $49.2M in net income, and -$57.0M in free cash flow against $839.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPVG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPVG last traded at $4.55 (+2.02% on volume of 143,389 shares), positioning the stock -6.38% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.86) and -12.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.20). Across its 52-week range of $4.15 to $6.95, TPVG sits at the 14.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($4.25 to $4.85).

TPVG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TPVG stock right now?

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (14% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is TPVG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TPVG's 12-month base price target is $4.51 (range $3.52 to $7.3), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TPVG RQD Cockpit TPVG 12M Forecast TPVG Earnings & Move TPVG Dividends & DRIP TPVG Insiders & 13F TPVG Whale Options TPVG Profit Sankey TPVG News & Why