MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TMQ Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.31 -0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30
Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $418.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30 (-0.34%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMQ SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (23% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.1% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$2.80-15.7% Next Q
51
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$2.36-12.7% Next Q
48
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$2.06+12.1% Next Q
46
CurrentGrade D-$2.31-6.7% Hist 90D α
43
Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMQ Turnaround Squeeze
While TMQ currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.01) and Max Pain ($2.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.61.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMQ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMQ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TMQ Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) slipped -0.86% to $2.31, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($1.94 – $7.25). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($1.94 – $7.25) with RSI-14 at 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.1% around $2.31 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TMQ Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMQ)
- ✓Walkthrough of TMQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TMQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.74%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $2.12H $2.31L $2.11C $2.31VOL 1.85M
RES: $3.09SUP: $1.89SMA50: $3.01SMA200: $3.79
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TMQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMQ today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMQ)
Materials Rank #206 of 270
⚔️ CMCL vs TMQ Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMQ vs. CMCL, ITRG, NAK, VGZ)
Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) ranks #206 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #182 by equity capitalization ($418.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMQ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. NAK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with TMQ at 43/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMQ
ACTIVE
Trilogy Metals Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -34.0% | -0.86% | $418.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -1.70% | $413.8M | /cmcl-vs-tmq → |
| ITRG Integra Resources Corp. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.18% | $454.4M | /itrg-vs-tmq → |
| NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. | D+ | 55/100 | — | — | — | -4.67% | $464.9M | /nak-vs-tmq → |
| VGZ Vista Gold Corp | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -4.44% | $376.6M | /vgz-vs-tmq → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-11-30 • CIK 0001543418In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$42.2M, operating cash flow of -$3.2M, and free cash flow of -$3.2M (-77.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMQ closed FY2025 with $157.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-11-30 | $0 | -$42.2M | -$3.2M | -$3.2M | $157.3M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-11-30 | $0 | -$8.6M | -$1.8M | -$1.8M | $133.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-11-30 | $0 | -$15.0M | -$3.1M | -$3.1M | — | — |
3. TMQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $418.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #206 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $454.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?
Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TMQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TMQ last traded at $2.31 (-0.86% on volume of 1,187,992 shares), positioning the stock -23.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.01) and -39.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.79). Across its 52-week range of $1.94 to $7.25, TMQ sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($2.05 to $2.57).
TMQ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TMQ stock moving today?
Why TMQ Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-34% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.