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Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $418.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #206 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $454.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?

Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is TMQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMQ last traded at $2.31 (-0.86% on volume of 1,187,992 shares), positioning the stock -23.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.01) and -39.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.79). Across its 52-week range of $1.94 to $7.25, TMQ sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($2.05 to $2.57).

Q: What is TMQ's 12-month stock price target?

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.15 (-6.9% from $2.31), with a bull-case target of $7.61 and a bear-case floor of $1.68.

Q: Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TMQ D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 43/100.

$2.31 -0.86% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $418.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30 (-0.34%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMQ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMQ SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.80-15.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.36-12.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.06+12.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.31-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMQ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMQ currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.01) and Max Pain ($2.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMQ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMQ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TMQ Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.31: 4329.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.68

$7,273

$-2,727 (-27.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.15

$9,307

$-693 (-6.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $7.61

$32,944

+$22,944 (+229.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$2	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$7	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$2	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMQ)

✓Walkthrough of TMQ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TMQ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -47.74%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.12H $2.31L $2.11C $2.31VOL 1.85M

RES: $3.09SUP: $1.89SMA50: $3.01SMA200: $3.79

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMQ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMQ Butterfly Map → + Track TMQ →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMQ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMQ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMQ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMQ)

Materials Rank #206 of 270 ⚔️ CMCL vs TMQ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMQ vs. CMCL, ITRG, NAK, VGZ)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) ranks #206 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #182 by equity capitalization ($418.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMQ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. NAK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 55/100 (D+) compared with TMQ at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMQ ACTIVE Trilogy Metals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-34.0%	-0.86%	$418.9M	Benchmark Subject
CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.70%	$413.8M	/cmcl-vs-tmq →
ITRG Integra Resources Corp.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.18%	$454.4M	/itrg-vs-tmq →
NAK Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-4.67%	$464.9M	/nak-vs-tmq →
VGZ Vista Gold Corp	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.44%	$376.6M	/vgz-vs-tmq →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-11-30 • CIK 0001543418

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$42.2M, operating cash flow of -$3.2M, and free cash flow of -$3.2M (-77.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMQ closed FY2025 with $157.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-11-30	$0	-$42.2M	-$3.2M	-$3.2M	$157.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-11-30	$0	-$8.6M	-$1.8M	-$1.8M	$133.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-11-30	$0	-$15.0M	-$3.1M	-$3.1M	—	—

3. TMQ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Trilogy Metals Inc. (NYSE: TMQ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $418.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMQ ranks #206 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMQ compare to CMCL and ITRG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TMQ carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -34.0%. By comparison, CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M) and ITRG (Integra Resources Corp.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $454.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMQ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMQ?

Per TMQ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0001543418), Trilogy Metals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$42.2M in net income, and -$3.2M in free cash flow against $157.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMQ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMQ last traded at $2.31 (-0.86% on volume of 1,187,992 shares), positioning the stock -23.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.01) and -39.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.79). Across its 52-week range of $1.94 to $7.25, TMQ sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($2.05 to $2.57).

TMQ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TMQ's 12-month stock price target?

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.15 (-6.9% from $2.31), with a bull-case target of $7.61 and a bear-case floor of $1.68.

Is TMQ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TMQ D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 43/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TMQ RQD Cockpit TMQ 12M Forecast TMQ Earnings & Move TMQ Dividends & DRIP TMQ Insiders & 13F TMQ Whale Options TMQ Profit Sankey TMQ News & Why