MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TMDX Stock advanced +0.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$67.12 +0.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03
TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.33B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TMDX SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.50 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B+$77.87-9.1% Next Q
77
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B+$70.78-0.1% Next Q
74
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$70.74-5.1% Next Q
72
CurrentGrade C+$67.12+2% Hist 90D α
69
Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMDX Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TMDX faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.65) or 200D SMA ($94.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($70.44) toward Bear Floor ($54.94).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TMDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TMDX Stock advanced +0.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) advanced +0.33% to $67.12, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($60.11 – $156). Solid 60% profit margin (18% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($60.11 – $156) with RSI-14 at 28.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.6% around $67.12 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 59.9% gross margin and $133.6M annual free cash flow.
Live TMDX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TMDX Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TMDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.41%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $67.59H $67.75L $64.64C $67.12VOL 898.5K
RES: $111.3SUP: $75.69SMA50: $81.65SMA200: $94.48
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TMDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +37.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMDX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMDX)
Health Care Rank #100 of 1016
⚔️ AXGN vs TMDX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMDX vs. AXGN, CNMD, ITGR, LIVN)
Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) ranks #100 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #233 by equity capitalization ($2.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. TMDX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMDX
ACTIVE
TransMedics Group Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 12.2x | 59.9% | 18.1% | +0.33% | $2.33B | Benchmark Subject |
| AXGN Axogen Inc. | D+ | 54/100 | — | 74.3% | -2.6% | +0.77% | $2.96B | /axgn-vs-tmdx → |
| CNMD CONMED Corporation | C | 62/100 | 28.9x | 54.6% | 7.8% | -0.09% | $1.36B | /cnmd-vs-tmdx → |
| ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation | C+ | 67/100 | 41.8x | 27.0% | 6.0% | -0.02% | $4.30B | /itgr-vs-tmdx → |
| LIVN LivaNova PLC | C- | 61/100 | — | 67.7% | 17.3% | +0.73% | $4.48B | /livn-vs-tmdx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756262In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported GAAP revenue of $605.5M (+37.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.5M , and +150.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.3M, operating cash flow of $192.8M, and free cash flow of $133.6M (+265.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMDX closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.50, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $605.5M | $190.3M | $192.8M | $133.6M | $1.07B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $441.5M | $35.5M | $48.8M | -$80.9M | $804.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $241.6M | -$25.0M | -$13.0M | -$13.0M | — | — |
3. TMDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $67.12 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $2.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #100 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.96B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?
Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TMDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TMDX last traded at $67.12 (+0.33% on volume of 991,428 shares), positioning the stock -17.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.65) and -28.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($94.48). Across its 52-week range of $60.11 to $156.00, TMDX sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($60.01 to $74.23).
TMDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TMDX stock moving today?
Why TMDX Stock advanced +0.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 60% profit margin (18% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.