Stock Ratings / Health Care / TMDX / forecast

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TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$67.12 +0.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TMDX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $67.12 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $2.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.96B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?

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Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMDX SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.50 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$78.17-8.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$71.60-1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$70.63-5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$67.12+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMDX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, TMDX faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.10) or 200D SMA ($94.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($68.33) toward Bear Floor ($53.30).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TMDX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $67.12: 149.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $53.30

$7,941

$-2,059 (-20.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $68.33

$10,180

+$180 (+1.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $163.80

$24,404

+$14,404 (+144.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$71	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$154	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$61	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TMDX Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TMDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.86%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $66.90H $67.12L $66.90C $67.12VOL 991.4K

RES: $111.6SUP: $67.09SMA50: $81.10SMA200: $94.10

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMDX Butterfly Map → + Track TMDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMDX)

Health Care Rank #160 of 1016 ⚔️ AXGN vs TMDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMDX vs. AXGN, CNMD, ITGR, LIVN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #233 by equity capitalization ($2.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. LIVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TMDX at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMDX ACTIVE TransMedics Group Inc.	C	62/100	12.2x	59.9%	18.1%	+0.33%	$2.33B	Benchmark Subject
AXGN Axogen Inc.	D+	54/100	—	74.3%	-2.6%	+0.77%	$2.96B	/axgn-vs-tmdx →
CNMD CONMED Corporation	C	65/100	28.9x	54.6%	7.8%	-0.09%	$1.36B	/cnmd-vs-tmdx →
ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation	C+	67/100	41.8x	27.0%	6.0%	-0.02%	$4.30B	/itgr-vs-tmdx →
LIVN LivaNova PLC	C+	68/100	—	67.7%	17.3%	+0.73%	$4.48B	/livn-vs-tmdx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756262

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported GAAP revenue of $605.5M (+37.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.5M , and +150.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.3M, operating cash flow of $192.8M, and free cash flow of $133.6M (+265.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMDX closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.50, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$605.5M	$190.3M	$192.8M	$133.6M	$1.07B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$441.5M	$35.5M	$48.8M	-$80.9M	$804.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$241.6M	-$25.0M	-$13.0M	-$13.0M	—	—

3. TMDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?

Where is TMDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMDX last traded at $67.12 (+0.33% on volume of 991,428 shares), positioning the stock -17.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.10) and -28.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($94.10). Across its 52-week range of $60.10 to $156.00, TMDX sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.8% ($60.54 to $73.70).

TMDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TMDX's 12-month stock price target?

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $68.33 (+1.8% from $67.12), with a bull-case target of $163.8 and a bear-case floor of $53.3.