Stock Ratings / Health Care / TMDX / financials

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TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: How profitable is TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TMDX converted $605.5M of revenue into a 59.9% gross margin, 17.9% operating margin, and $133.6M in free cash flow (22.1% FCF margin).

$67.12 +0.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03

TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.33B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $67.03 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 22.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMDX SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.50 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$77.87-9.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$70.78-0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$70.74-5.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$67.12+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (77) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMDX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, TMDX faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 57.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.65) or 200D SMA ($94.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($70.44) toward Bear Floor ($54.94).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TMDX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$133.6M (22.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $241.6M

FY24

Rev $441.5M

FY25

Rev $605.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$605.5M	59.9%	17.9%	$190.3M	$133.6M	18.1%
FY 2024	$441.5M	59.4%	8.5%	$35.5M	-$80.9M	13%
FY 2023	$241.6M	59.9%	-11.9%	-$25.0M	-$13.0M	18.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMDX)

✓Walkthrough of TMDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TMDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.41%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $67.59H $67.75L $64.64C $67.12VOL 898.5K

RES: $111.3SUP: $75.69SMA50: $81.65SMA200: $94.48

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMDX Butterfly Map → + Track TMDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +37.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMDX)

Health Care Rank #100 of 1016 ⚔️ AXGN vs TMDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TMDX vs. AXGN, CNMD, ITGR, LIVN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus (26 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) ranks #100 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #233 by equity capitalization ($2.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMDX leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while TMDX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 59.9% gross margin. TMDX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMDX ACTIVE TransMedics Group Inc.	C+	69/100	12.2x	59.9%	18.1%	+0.33%	$2.33B	Benchmark Subject
AXGN Axogen Inc.	D+	54/100	—	74.3%	-2.6%	+0.77%	$2.96B	/axgn-vs-tmdx →
CNMD CONMED Corporation	C	62/100	28.9x	54.6%	7.8%	-0.09%	$1.36B	/cnmd-vs-tmdx →
ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation	C+	67/100	41.8x	27.0%	6.0%	-0.02%	$4.30B	/itgr-vs-tmdx →
LIVN LivaNova PLC	C-	61/100	—	67.7%	17.3%	+0.73%	$4.48B	/livn-vs-tmdx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001756262

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX) reported GAAP revenue of $605.5M (+37.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $441.5M , and +150.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $190.3M, operating cash flow of $192.8M, and free cash flow of $133.6M (+265.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMDX closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.50, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$605.5M	$190.3M	$192.8M	$133.6M	$1.07B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$441.5M	$35.5M	$48.8M	-$80.9M	$804.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$241.6M	-$25.0M	-$13.0M	-$13.0M	—	—

3. TMDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TransMedics Group Inc. (NASDAQ: TMDX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $67.12 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $2.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TMDX ranks #100 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMDX compare to AXGN and CNMD in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus), TMDX carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of 59.9%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, AXGN (Axogen Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.6%, cap $2.96B) and CNMD (CONMED Corporation) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 28.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMDX leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while TMDX leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMDX?

Per TMDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001756262), TransMedics Group Inc. generated $605.5M in revenue (+37.1% YoY), $190.3M in net income, and $133.6M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (60% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMDX last traded at $67.12 (+0.33% on volume of 991,428 shares), positioning the stock -17.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.65) and -28.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($94.48). Across its 52-week range of $60.11 to $156.00, TMDX sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 28.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($60.01 to $74.23).

TMDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is TransMedics Group Inc. (TMDX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TMDX converted $605.5M of revenue into a 59.9% gross margin, 17.9% operating margin, and $133.6M in free cash flow (22.1% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: TMDX RQD Cockpit TMDX 12M Forecast TMDX Earnings & Move TMDX Dividends & DRIP TMDX Insiders & 13F TMDX Whale Options TMDX Profit Sankey TMDX News & Why