Stock Ratings / Materials / TMC / financials

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TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.84 +1.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TMC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $2.84 (+1.43% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMC ranks #235 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMC compare to IMC and CRML in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), TMC carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMC (IMC Rare Earths Ltd) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.26B) and CRML (Critical Metals Corp.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMC?

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Per TMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001798562), TMC the metals company Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$319.8M in net income, and -$43.1M in free cash flow against $181.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84 (+0.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMC SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.88-9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.62-8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.39+18.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.84-9.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → E (29)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMC currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.65) and Max Pain ($2.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TMC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-3.5%	-$319.8M	-$43.1M	-45%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	-2%	-$81.9M	-$44.0M	-45%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	-1.8%	-$73.8M	-$59.6M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMC)

✓Walkthrough of TMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $2.80H $2.84L $2.80C $2.84VOL 5.25M

RES: $4.45SUP: $2.25SMA50: $3.65SMA200: $4.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMC Butterfly Map → + Track TMC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMC)

Materials Rank #235 of 270 ⚔️ IMC vs TMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMC vs. IMC, CRML, IE, USAS)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) ranks #235 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #127 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IMC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TMC at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMC ACTIVE TMC the metals company Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.43%	$1.25B	Benchmark Subject
IMC IMC Rare Earths Ltd	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+8.01%	$1.26B	/imc-vs-tmc →
CRML Critical Metals Corp.	D+	53/100	—	—	—	+2.05%	$1.18B	/crml-vs-tmc →
IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc.	D-	35/100	—	65.3%	-35.0%	-4.64%	$1.34B	/ie-vs-tmc →
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation no par value	D	44/100	—	—	—	-4.06%	$1.04B	/usas-vs-tmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001798562

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$319.8M, operating cash flow of -$42.9M, and free cash flow of -$43.1M (+2.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMC closed FY2025 with $181.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$319.8M	-$42.9M	-$43.1M	$181.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$81.9M	-$43.5M	-$44.0M	$63.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$73.8M	-$59.6M	-$59.6M	—	—

3. TMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TMC compare to IMC and CRML in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMC?

Where is TMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMC last traded at $2.84 (+1.43% on volume of 5,248,023 shares), positioning the stock -22.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.65) and -41.68% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.87). Across its 52-week range of $2.34 to $10.05, TMC sits at the 6.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.49 to $3.19).

TMC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TMC converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: TMC RQD Cockpit TMC 12M Forecast TMC Earnings & Move TMC Dividends & DRIP TMC Insiders & 13F TMC Whale Options TMC Profit Sankey TMC News & Why