Stock Ratings / Materials / TMC / dividends

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TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$2.84 +1.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.84 (+0.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMC SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.36-23.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$2.58-5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.43+16.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$2.84-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TMC currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.69) and Max Pain ($2.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.55.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

0.6% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $102/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMC)

✓Walkthrough of TMC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -45.80%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.72H $2.84L $2.52C $2.84VOL 3.55M

RES: $4.47SUP: $2.27SMA50: $3.69SMA200: $4.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMC Butterfly Map → + Track TMC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMC)

Materials Rank #194 of 270 ⚔️ IMC vs TMC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TMC vs. IMC, CRML, IE, USAS)

Industry: Metal Mining (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) ranks #194 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #127 by equity capitalization ($1.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CRML currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with TMC at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMC ACTIVE TMC the metals company Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.43%	$1.25B	Benchmark Subject
IMC IMC Rare Earths Ltd	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+8.01%	$1.26B	/imc-vs-tmc →
CRML Critical Metals Corp.	C	63/100	—	—	—	+2.05%	$1.18B	/crml-vs-tmc →
IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc.	D-	37/100	—	65.3%	-35.0%	-4.64%	$1.34B	/ie-vs-tmc →
USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation no par value	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-4.06%	$1.04B	/usas-vs-tmc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001798562

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$319.8M, operating cash flow of -$42.9M, and free cash flow of -$43.1M (+2.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMC closed FY2025 with $181.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$319.8M	-$42.9M	-$43.1M	$181.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$81.9M	-$43.5M	-$44.0M	$63.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$73.8M	-$59.6M	-$59.6M	—	—

3. TMC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $2.84 (+1.43% 1D, market cap $1.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TMC ranks #194 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMC compare to IMC and CRML in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Metal Mining), TMC carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMC (IMC Rare Earths Ltd) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.26B) and CRML (Critical Metals Corp.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMC leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMC?

Per TMC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001798562), TMC the metals company Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$319.8M in net income, and -$43.1M in free cash flow against $181.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMC last traded at $2.84 (+1.43% on volume of 5,248,023 shares), positioning the stock -23.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.69) and -42.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.90). Across its 52-week range of $2.34 to $10.05, TMC sits at the 6.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.49 to $3.19).

TMC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does TMC pay a dividend and is it safe?

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

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