Stock Ratings / Financials / TIPT / options

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Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$17.22 +0.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19

Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $627.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19 (-0.18%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 16821.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TIPT SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16821.8% FCF Margin ($168.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.5) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$17.25-4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$16.46-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$16.29+5.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.22-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIPT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TIPT currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.43) and Max Pain ($18.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TIPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TIPT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TIPT.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIPT)

✓Walkthrough of TIPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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TIPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.12%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $17.29H $17.44L $17.04C $17.22VOL 592.1K

RES: $18.69SUP: $16.11SMA50: $17.43SMA200: $17.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TIPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TIPT Butterfly Map → + Track TIPT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIPT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIPT)

Financials Rank #936 of 1096 ⚔️ DGICA vs TIPT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TIPT vs. DGICA, AII, ACIC, GLRE)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) ranks #936 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #657 by equity capitalization ($627.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACIC leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while ACIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. AII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with TIPT at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TIPT ACTIVE Tiptree Inc.	D	45/100	18.0x	—	-6.8%	+0.06%	$627.2M	Benchmark Subject
DGICA Donegal Group Inc. (Class A)	C+	69/100	8.8x	—	12.4%	+1.07%	$699.0M	/dgica-vs-tipt →
AII American Integrity Insurance Group Inc.	B	75/100	5.6x	—	29.6%	+2.54%	$562.6M	/aii-vs-tipt →
ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corporation	B	74/100	4.8x	—	85.0%	+0.55%	$516.7M	/acic-vs-tipt →
GLRE Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)	C	64/100	6.4x	—	10.6%	+0.55%	$477.5M	/glre-vs-tipt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001393726

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) reported GAAP revenue of $488.0K (-99.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $341.5M , and -99.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $34.9M, operating cash flow of $168.2M, and free cash flow of $168.2M (-30.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TIPT closed FY2025 with $6.84B in total assets against $63.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$488.0K	$34.9M	$168.2M	$168.2M	$6.84B	$63.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$341.5M	$53.4M	$240.8M	$240.7M	$5.69B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$341.4M	$14.0M	$71.5M	$71.5M	—	—

3. TIPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TIPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tiptree Inc. (NASDAQ: TIPT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $17.22 (+0.06% 1D, market cap $627.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TIPT ranks #936 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TIPT compare to DGICA and AII in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), TIPT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.8%. By comparison, DGICA (Donegal Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $699.0M) and AII (American Integrity Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 5.6x, ROIC 29.6%, cap $562.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIC leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while ACIC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIPT?

Per TIPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393726), Tiptree Inc. generated $488.0K in revenue (-99.9% YoY), $34.9M in net income, and $168.2M in free cash flow against $6.84B in total assets and $63.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TIPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TIPT last traded at $17.22 (+0.06% on volume of 679,547 shares), positioning the stock -1.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.43) and -0.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.37). Across its 52-week range of $15.49 to $19.33, TIPT sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($16.39 to $18.05).

TIPT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TIPT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TIPT.

Direct Sub-Reports: TIPT RQD Cockpit TIPT 12M Forecast TIPT Earnings & Move TIPT Dividends & DRIP TIPT Insiders & 13F TIPT Whale Options TIPT Profit Sankey TIPT News & Why