Stock Ratings / Financials / TIPT / forecast

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Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.22 +0.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19

Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $627.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TIPT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TIPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Tiptree Inc. (NASDAQ: TIPT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $17.22 (+0.06% 1D, market cap $627.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TIPT ranks #821 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TIPT compare to DGICA and AII in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), TIPT carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.8%. By comparison, DGICA (Donegal Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 8.8x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $699.0M) and AII (American Integrity Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 5.6x, ROIC 29.6%, cap $562.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIC leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while ACIC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIPT?

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Per TIPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001393726), Tiptree Inc. generated $488.0K in revenue (-99.9% YoY), $34.9M in net income, and $168.2M in free cash flow against $6.84B in total assets and $63.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19 (-0.18%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 16821.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TIPT SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16821.8% FCF Margin ($168.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.4) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$17.36-5.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$16.37+0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$16.38+5.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$17.22-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIPT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TIPT currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.41) and Max Pain ($18.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TIPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TIPT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.22: 580.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.64

$7,340

$-2,660 (-26.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.21

$9,413

$-587 (-5.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $20.30

$11,789

+$1,789 (+17.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$17	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$19	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$14	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIPT)

✓Walkthrough of TIPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TIPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.94%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $17.21H $17.22L $17.21C $17.22VOL 679.5K

RES: $18.69SUP: $16.08SMA50: $17.41SMA200: $17.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TIPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TIPT Butterfly Map → + Track TIPT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIPT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIPT)

Financials Rank #821 of 1096 ⚔️ DGICA vs TIPT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TIPT vs. DGICA, AII, ACIC, GLRE)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) ranks #821 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #657 by equity capitalization ($627.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACIC leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while ACIC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. AII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with TIPT at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TIPT ACTIVE Tiptree Inc.	D	45/100	18.0x	—	-6.8%	+0.06%	$627.2M	Benchmark Subject
DGICA Donegal Group Inc. (Class A)	C	64/100	8.8x	—	12.4%	+1.07%	$699.0M	/dgica-vs-tipt →
AII American Integrity Insurance Group Inc.	B+	77/100	5.6x	—	29.6%	+2.54%	$562.6M	/aii-vs-tipt →
ACIC American Coastal Insurance Corporation	B-	70/100	4.8x	—	85.0%	+0.55%	$516.7M	/acic-vs-tipt →
GLRE Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)	D+	54/100	6.4x	—	10.6%	+0.55%	$477.5M	/glre-vs-tipt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001393726

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) reported GAAP revenue of $488.0K (-99.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $341.5M , and -99.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $34.9M, operating cash flow of $168.2M, and free cash flow of $168.2M (-30.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TIPT closed FY2025 with $6.84B in total assets against $63.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$488.0K	$34.9M	$168.2M	$168.2M	$6.84B	$63.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$341.5M	$53.4M	$240.8M	$240.7M	$5.69B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$341.4M	$14.0M	$71.5M	$71.5M	—	—

3. TIPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TIPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TIPT compare to DGICA and AII in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIPT?

Where is TIPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TIPT last traded at $17.22 (+0.06% on volume of 679,547 shares), positioning the stock -1.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.41) and -0.86% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.37). Across its 52-week range of $15.49 to $19.33, TIPT sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($16.43 to $18.01).

TIPT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TIPT's 12-month stock price target?

Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.21 (-5.9% from $17.22), with a bull-case target of $20.3 and a bear-case floor of $12.64.