CATALYSTYahoo • 2d ago
1 safe-and-steady stock to research further and 2 we find riskyStability is great, but low-volatility stocks may struggle to deliver market-beating returns over time as they sometimes underperform during bull markets.
Why TFSL Stock advanced +0.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$16.76 +0.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $4.70B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TFSL SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (21% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 57% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$16.07+1.6% Next Q
40
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$16.33+1.7% Next Q
43
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$16.60+1% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D$16.76-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFSL Turnaround Squeeze
While TFSL currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.82) and Max Pain ($17.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.46.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TFSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TFSL Stock advanced +0.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) advanced +0.54% to $16.76, trading at 57% of its 52-week range ($13.21 – $19.49). Stretched risk/reward at 52x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 57% of its 52-week range ($13.21 – $19.49) with RSI-14 at 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.6% around $16.76 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $71.0M annual free cash flow.
Live TFSL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
TFS Financial (TFSL) Q4 Earnings Match EstimatesTFS Financial (TFSL) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 0.00% and +3.14%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
TFS Financial: Fiscal Q4 Earnings SnapshotCLEVELAND (AP) — CLEVELAND (AP) — TFS Financial Corp. (TFSL) on Thursday reported net income of $24.
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
TFS Financial Reports Record Profit of $100.7 Million in 2026CLEVELAND, October 29, 2026--TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) (the "Company", "we", "our"), the holding company for Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland (the "Association"), announced net incom
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Riverview Bancorp (RVSB) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat EstimatesRiverview Bancorp (RVSB) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +42.86% and +2.33%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Strength Seen in Landmark Bancorp (LARK): Can Its 6.3% Jump Turn into More Strength?Landmark Bancorp (LARK) was a big mover last session on higher-than-average trading volume. The latest trend in earnings estimate revisions might not help the stock continue moving higher in the near term.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 10d ago
Kearny (KRNY) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Lag EstimatesKearny (KRNY) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of -5.88% and -2.80%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFSL)
- ✓Walkthrough of TFSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TFSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.44%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $16.72H $16.76L $16.36C $16.76VOL 877.2K
RES: $17.68SUP: $15.46SMA50: $16.82SMA200: $15.95
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TFSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
37.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFSL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFSL)
Financials Rank #886 of 1096
⚔️ EBC vs TFSL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFSL vs. EBC, AX, BKU, PFS)
Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) ranks #886 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #284 by equity capitalization ($4.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while AX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TFSL at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TFSL
ACTIVE
TFS Financial Corporation | D | 48/100 | 51.7x | — | 4.8% | +0.54% | $4.70B | Benchmark Subject |
| EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 58.6x | — | 0.7% | +0.53% | $5.17B | /ebc-vs-tfsl → |
| AX Axos Financial Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 12.2x | — | 14.8% | +1.17% | $5.26B | /ax-vs-tfsl → |
| BKU BankUnited Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 11.5x | — | 8.8% | +1.38% | $3.09B | /bku-vs-tfsl → |
| PFS Provident Financial Services Inc | C | 62/100 | 10.4x | — | 10.3% | +0.22% | $3.02B | /pfs-vs-tfsl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001381668In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $91.0M, operating cash flow of $82.4M, and free cash flow of $71.0M (-17.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFSL closed FY2025 with $17.50B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $0 | $91.0M | $82.4M | $71.0M | $17.50B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $0 | $79.6M | $88.6M | $85.5M | $17.06B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $0 | $75.3M | $90.7M | $90.7M | — | — |
3. TFSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $16.76 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $4.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TFSL ranks #886 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), TFSL carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 51.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, EBC (Eastern Bankshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 58.6x, ROIC 0.7%, cap $5.17B) and AX (Axos Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while AX leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?
Per TFSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001381668), TFS Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $91.0M in net income, and $71.0M in free cash flow against $17.50B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TFSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TFSL last traded at $16.76 (+0.54% on volume of 833,582 shares), positioning the stock -0.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.82) and +5.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.95). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $19.49, TFSL sits at the 56.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($16.16 to $17.36).
TFSL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TFSL stock moving today?
Why TFSL Stock advanced +0.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 52x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.