Stock Ratings / Financials / TFSL / financials

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TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$16.76 +0.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.70B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TFSL SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 57% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$16.07+1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$16.33+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$16.60+1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$16.76-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFSL currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.82) and Max Pain ($17.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TFSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TFSL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$71.0M (1.8% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$91.0M	$71.0M	4.8%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$79.6M	$85.5M	4.8%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$75.3M	$90.7M	4.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFSL)

✓Walkthrough of TFSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TFSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.44%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $16.72H $16.76L $16.36C $16.76VOL 877.2K

RES: $17.68SUP: $15.46SMA50: $16.82SMA200: $15.95

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFSL Butterfly Map → + Track TFSL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

37.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFSL)

Financials Rank #886 of 1096 ⚔️ EBC vs TFSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFSL vs. EBC, AX, BKU, PFS)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) ranks #886 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #284 by equity capitalization ($4.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while AX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TFSL at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TFSL ACTIVE TFS Financial Corporation	D	48/100	51.7x	—	4.8%	+0.54%	$4.70B	Benchmark Subject
EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc.	C+	69/100	58.6x	—	0.7%	+0.53%	$5.17B	/ebc-vs-tfsl →
AX Axos Financial Inc.	C+	67/100	12.2x	—	14.8%	+1.17%	$5.26B	/ax-vs-tfsl →
BKU BankUnited Inc.	C+	68/100	11.5x	—	8.8%	+1.38%	$3.09B	/bku-vs-tfsl →
PFS Provident Financial Services Inc	C	62/100	10.4x	—	10.3%	+0.22%	$3.02B	/pfs-vs-tfsl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001381668

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $91.0M, operating cash flow of $82.4M, and free cash flow of $71.0M (-17.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFSL closed FY2025 with $17.50B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$91.0M	$82.4M	$71.0M	$17.50B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$79.6M	$88.6M	$85.5M	$17.06B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$75.3M	$90.7M	$90.7M	—	—

3. TFSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $16.76 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $4.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TFSL ranks #886 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), TFSL carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 51.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, EBC (Eastern Bankshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 58.6x, ROIC 0.7%, cap $5.17B) and AX (Axos Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while AX leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?

Per TFSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001381668), TFS Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $91.0M in net income, and $71.0M in free cash flow against $17.50B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TFSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFSL last traded at $16.76 (+0.54% on volume of 833,582 shares), positioning the stock -0.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.82) and +5.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.95). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $19.49, TFSL sits at the 56.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($16.16 to $17.36).