Stock Ratings / Financials / TFSL / earnings

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TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±3.5% Move

$16.76 +0.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74

TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.70B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TFSL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, TFS Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: TFSL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $16.76 (+0.54% 1D, market cap $4.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TFSL ranks #617 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), TFSL carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 51.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.8%. By comparison, EBC (Eastern Bankshares Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 58.6x, ROIC 0.7%, cap $5.17B) and AX (Axos Financial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $5.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while AX leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?

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Per TFSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001381668), TFS Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $91.0M in net income, and $71.0M in free cash flow against $17.50B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.74 (-0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TFSL SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$16.16-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$16.07+3.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$16.69+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$16.76-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFSL currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.80) and Max Pain ($17.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TFSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±3.5% Swing Band

±$0.59 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TFSL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 52/100

Trailing EPS: $0.32 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (52/100)Model Risk Weight (48/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-09-30	$0	$91.0M	$71.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-09-30	$0	$79.6M	$85.5M	52%
FY 2023	2023-09-30	$0	$75.3M	$90.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFSL)

✓Walkthrough of TFSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TFSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $16.67H $16.76L $16.67C $16.76VOL 833.6K

RES: $16.90SUP: $15.43SMA50: $16.80SMA200: $15.97

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFSL Butterfly Map → + Track TFSL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

37.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFSL)

Financials Rank #617 of 1096 ⚔️ EBC vs TFSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TFSL vs. EBC, AX, BKU, PFS)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) ranks #617 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #284 by equity capitalization ($4.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while AX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TFSL at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TFSL ACTIVE TFS Financial Corporation	D+	52/100	51.7x	—	4.8%	+0.54%	$4.70B	Benchmark Subject
EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc.	C+	69/100	58.6x	—	0.7%	+0.53%	$5.17B	/ebc-vs-tfsl →
AX Axos Financial Inc.	C+	68/100	12.2x	—	14.8%	+1.17%	$5.26B	/ax-vs-tfsl →
BKU BankUnited Inc.	D+	54/100	11.5x	—	8.8%	+1.38%	$3.09B	/bku-vs-tfsl →
PFS Provident Financial Services Inc	C+	68/100	10.4x	—	10.3%	+0.22%	$3.02B	/pfs-vs-tfsl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001381668

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $91.0M, operating cash flow of $82.4M, and free cash flow of $71.0M (-17.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TFSL closed FY2025 with $17.50B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$91.0M	$82.4M	$71.0M	$17.50B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$79.6M	$88.6M	$85.5M	$17.06B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$75.3M	$90.7M	$90.7M	—	—

3. TFSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TFSL compare to EBC and AX in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFSL?

Where is TFSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFSL last traded at $16.76 (+0.54% on volume of 833,582 shares), positioning the stock -0.24% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.80) and +4.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($15.97). Across its 52-week range of $13.21 to $19.49, TFSL sits at the 56.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($16.17 to $17.35).