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Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$31.33 -1.14% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.21

Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.10B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $31.20 (-0.40%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TBN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TBN SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 30% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.45 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$34.02-7.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$31.33-3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$30.30+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$31.33-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TBN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TBN currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($35.20) and Max Pain ($32.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $54.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TBN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TBN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±11.2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TBN)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TBN.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TBN)

✓Walkthrough of TBN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TBN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $30.78H $31.47L $30.54C $31.33VOL 283.9K

RES: $43.14SUP: $27.00SMA50: $35.20SMA200: $33.92

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TBN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TBN Butterfly Map → + Track TBN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TBN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TBN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TBN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TBN)

Energy Rank #169 of 211 ⚔️ REPX vs TBN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (TBN vs. REPX, SBR, BORR, INR)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) ranks #169 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #136 by equity capitalization ($1.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REPX leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while REPX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TBN at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TBN ACTIVE Tamboran Resources Corporation	D	45/100	—	—	-10.1%	-1.14%	$1.10B	Benchmark Subject
REPX Riley Exploration Permian Inc.	C+	68/100	7.2x	—	12.2%	-0.02%	$1.15B	/repx-vs-tbn →
SBR Sabine Royalty Trust	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-0.54%	$1.04B	/sbr-vs-tbn →
BORR Borr Drilling Limited	D+	53/100	27.8x	—	8.9%	-7.52%	$1.25B	/borr-vs-tbn →
INR Infinity Natural Resources Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	66.6x	—	3.1%	-0.14%	$921.5M	/inr-vs-tbn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001997652

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$36.9M, operating cash flow of -$29.6M, and free cash flow of -$29.6M (-160.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TBN closed FY2025 with $600.6M in total assets against $32.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.45, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$0	-$36.9M	-$29.6M	-$29.6M	$600.6M	$32.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$0	-$21.9M	-$11.4M	-$11.4M	$362.9M	$0

3. TBN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TBN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tamboran Resources Corporation (NYSE: TBN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $31.33 (-1.14% 1D, market cap $1.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, TBN ranks #169 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TBN compare to REPX and SBR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), TBN carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -10.1%. By comparison, REPX (Riley Exploration Permian Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.15B) and SBR (Sabine Royalty Trust) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TBN?

Per TBN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001997652), Tamboran Resources Corporation generated $0 in revenue, -$36.9M in net income, and -$29.6M in free cash flow against $600.6M in total assets and $32.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TBN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TBN last traded at $31.33 (-1.14% on volume of 181,682 shares), positioning the stock -10.99% below its 50-day simple moving average ($35.20) and -7.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($33.92). Across its 52-week range of $22.34 to $52.21, TBN sits at the 30.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.2% ($27.82 to $34.84).

TBN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TBN's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TBN.

Direct Sub-Reports: TBN RQD Cockpit TBN 12M Forecast TBN Earnings & Move TBN Dividends & DRIP TBN Insiders & 13F TBN Whale Options TBN Profit Sankey TBN News & Why