MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why STUB Stock surged +3.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.82 +3.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85
StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.22B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85 (+0.52%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 11% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STUB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY STUB SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (26% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$6.12-4.2% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$5.86-0.2% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$5.85-0.5% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade D+$5.82-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a STUB Turnaround Squeeze
While STUB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.94) and Max Pain ($6.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.86.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STUB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “STUB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why STUB Stock surged +3.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) surged +3.93% to $5.82, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($5.22 – $19.87). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($5.22 – $19.87) with RSI-14 at 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.7% around $5.82 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $191.2M annual free cash flow.
Live STUB Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STUB)
- ✓Walkthrough of STUB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
STUB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $5.76H $5.87L $5.62C $5.82VOL 7.65M
RES: $5.82SUP: $4.82SMA50: $5.94SMA200: $8.50
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
STUB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STUB today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STUB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STUB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STUB)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #581 of 1011
⚔️ MSGR vs STUB Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (STUB vs. MSGR, BRSL, GENI, RSI)
Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) ranks #581 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #403 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRSL leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while RSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.3% ROIC and 34.6% gross margin. MSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with STUB at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STUB
ACTIVE
StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +3.93% | $2.22B | Benchmark Subject |
| MSGR MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A) | C+ | 66/100 | — | — | — | +16.26% | $2.63B | /msgr-vs-stub → |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025. | D | 49/100 | 12.0x | — | 16.8% | +3.34% | $1.77B | /brsl-vs-stub → |
| GENI Genius Sports Limited | D | 48/100 | — | 23.0% | -26.9% | +1.73% | $1.73B | /geni-vs-stub → |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive Inc. | C | 62/100 | 94.8x | 34.6% | 27.3% | -9.98% | $3.16B | /rsi-vs-stub → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001337634In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.75B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and +27.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.91B, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $191.2M (-26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, STUB closed FY2025 with $5.05B in total assets against $1.51B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.75B | -$1.91B | $192.6M | $191.2M | $5.05B | $1.51B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.77B | -$2.8M | $261.5M | $259.8M | $5.09B | $2.31B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.37B | $405.2M | $307.4M | $307.4M | — | — |
3. STUB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs STUB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: STUB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.82 (+3.93% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, STUB ranks #581 in composite RQD confidence.
How does STUB compare to MSGR and BRSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), STUB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MSGR (MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.63B) and BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRSL leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while RSI leads on capital efficiency (27.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STUB?
Per STUB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337634), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $1.75B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$1.91B in net income, and $191.2M in free cash flow against $5.05B in total assets and $1.51B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is STUB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
STUB last traded at $5.82 (+3.93% on volume of 4,162,029 shares), positioning the stock -2.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.94) and -31.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.50). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $19.87, STUB sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($5.26 to $6.38).
STUB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is STUB stock moving today?
Why STUB Stock surged +3.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.