Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / STUB / financials

MSGR (66) BRSL (49) GENI (48) RSI (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$5.82 +3.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85

StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.22B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85 (+0.52%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 11% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STUB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STUB SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$6.12-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.86-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$5.85-0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.82-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a STUB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While STUB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.94) and Max Pain ($6.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STUB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STUB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How STUB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$191.2M (11% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.37B

FY24

Rev $1.77B

FY25

Rev $1.75B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.75B	52%	-77%	-$1.91B	$191.2M	-45%
FY 2024	$1.77B	52%	7.8%	-$2.8M	$259.8M	5%
FY 2023	$1.37B	52%	18.5%	$405.2M	$307.4M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STUB)

✓Walkthrough of STUB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

STUB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $5.76H $5.87L $5.62C $5.82VOL 7.65M

RES: $5.82SUP: $4.82SMA50: $5.94SMA200: $8.50

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STUB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STUB Butterfly Map → + Track STUB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STUB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STUB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STUB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STUB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #581 of 1011 ⚔️ MSGR vs STUB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (STUB vs. MSGR, BRSL, GENI, RSI)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) ranks #581 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #403 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRSL leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while RSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.3% ROIC and 34.6% gross margin. MSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with STUB at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STUB ACTIVE StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.93%	$2.22B	Benchmark Subject
MSGR MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A)	C+	66/100	—	—	—	+16.26%	$2.63B	/msgr-vs-stub →
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.	D	49/100	12.0x	—	16.8%	+3.34%	$1.77B	/brsl-vs-stub →
GENI Genius Sports Limited	D	48/100	—	23.0%	-26.9%	+1.73%	$1.73B	/geni-vs-stub →
RSI Rush Street Interactive Inc.	C	62/100	94.8x	34.6%	27.3%	-9.98%	$3.16B	/rsi-vs-stub →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001337634

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.75B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and +27.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.91B, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $191.2M (-26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, STUB closed FY2025 with $5.05B in total assets against $1.51B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.75B	-$1.91B	$192.6M	$191.2M	$5.05B	$1.51B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.77B	-$2.8M	$261.5M	$259.8M	$5.09B	$2.31B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.37B	$405.2M	$307.4M	$307.4M	—	—

3. STUB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STUB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: STUB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.82 (+3.93% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, STUB ranks #581 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STUB compare to MSGR and BRSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), STUB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MSGR (MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.63B) and BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRSL leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while RSI leads on capital efficiency (27.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STUB?

Per STUB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337634), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $1.75B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$1.91B in net income, and $191.2M in free cash flow against $5.05B in total assets and $1.51B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STUB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STUB last traded at $5.82 (+3.93% on volume of 4,162,029 shares), positioning the stock -2.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.94) and -31.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.50). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $19.87, STUB sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($5.26 to $6.38).

STUB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), STUB converted $1.7B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $191.2M in free cash flow (11% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: STUB RQD Cockpit STUB 12M Forecast STUB Earnings & Move STUB Dividends & DRIP STUB Insiders & 13F STUB Whale Options STUB Profit Sankey STUB News & Why