Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GENI

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Genius Sports Limited (GENI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.46 +1.73% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.47

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.73B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.47 (+0.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GENI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GENI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$6.65-4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.35-0.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$6.33+2.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.46-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GENI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GENI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.67) and Max Pain ($6.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GENI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GENI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

48.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.43>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE34% OF RANGE

L: $4$6.46H: $12

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GENI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-26.9% ROIC with 23.0% gross margin and 3.73% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 1.43 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GENI

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GENI)

✓Walkthrough of GENI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +48.17%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $6.42H $6.50L $6.22C $6.46VOL 7.43M

RES: $6.70SUP: $5.18SMA50: $6.67SMA200: $6.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GENI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GENI Butterfly Map → + Track GENI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GENI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GENI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GENI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GENI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #677 of 1011 ⚔️ BRSL vs GENI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GENI vs. BRSL, PRSU, PRKS, STUB)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) ranks #677 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #436 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRKS leads on earnings valuation at 8.5x trailing P/E, while PRKS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PRKS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with GENI at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GENI ACTIVE Genius Sports Limited	D	48/100	—	23.0%	-26.9%	+1.73%	$1.73B	Benchmark Subject
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.	D	49/100	12.0x	—	16.8%	+3.34%	$1.77B	/brsl-vs-geni →
PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.	D	46/100	66.4x	92.3%	3.9%	+3.04%	$1.51B	/prsu-vs-geni →
PRKS United Parks & Resorts Inc.	C	63/100	8.5x	—	17.2%	+1.97%	$1.43B	/prks-vs-geni →
STUB StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.93%	$2.22B	/stub-vs-geni →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001834489

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported GAAP revenue of $669.5M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +62.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$111.6M, operating cash flow of $86.4M, and free cash flow of $64.5M (-7.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, GENI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$669.5M	-$111.6M	$86.4M	$64.5M	$1.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$63.0M	$81.9M	$69.6M	$792.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$413.0M	-$85.5M	$14.9M	$14.9M	—	—

3. GENI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.46 (+1.73% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GENI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GENI last traded at $6.46 (+1.73% on volume of 5,216,306 shares), positioning the stock -3.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.67) and +3.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.24). Across its 52-week range of $3.83 to $11.58, GENI sits at the 33.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.65 to $7.27).

GENI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GENI stock right now?

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-27% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GENI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GENI's 12-month base price target is $6.17 (range $4.81 to $12.16), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GENI RQD Cockpit GENI 12M Forecast GENI Earnings & Move GENI Dividends & DRIP GENI Insiders & 13F GENI Whale Options GENI Profit Sankey GENI News & Why