Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GENI / earnings

BRSL (34) PRSU (53) PRKS (48) STUB (38) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.3% Move

$6.36 -1.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.33

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.73B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GENI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $6.36 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #734 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

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Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.33 (-0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GENI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GENI SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 9.6% FCF Margin ($64.5M FCF) & 23% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.61-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.57-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.52-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.36-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GENI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GENI currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.63) and Max Pain ($6.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.15.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GENI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GENI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.3% Swing Band

±$0.78 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GENI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 40/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 31%

Model Bullish Setup (40/100)Model Risk Weight (60/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$669.5M	-$111.6M	$64.5M	23%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$63.0M	$69.6M	25.2%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$413.0M	-$85.5M	$14.9M	23%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GENI)

✓Walkthrough of GENI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $6.35H $6.46L $6.35C $6.36VOL 5.22M

RES: $6.67SUP: $5.17SMA50: $6.63SMA200: $6.22

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GENI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GENI Butterfly Map → + Track GENI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GENI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GENI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GENI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GENI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #734 of 1011 ⚔️ BRSL vs GENI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GENI vs. BRSL, PRSU, PRKS, STUB)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) ranks #734 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #436 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRKS leads on earnings valuation at 8.5x trailing P/E, while PRKS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PRSU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with GENI at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GENI ACTIVE Genius Sports Limited	D-	40/100	—	23.0%	-26.9%	-1.55%	$1.73B	Benchmark Subject
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.	E	34/100	12.0x	—	16.8%	+0.52%	$1.77B	/brsl-vs-geni →
PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.	D+	53/100	66.4x	92.3%	3.9%	-0.23%	$1.51B	/prsu-vs-geni →
PRKS United Parks & Resorts Inc.	D	48/100	8.5x	—	17.2%	-2.56%	$1.43B	/prks-vs-geni →
STUB StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.69%	$2.22B	/stub-vs-geni →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001834489

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported GAAP revenue of $669.5M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +62.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$111.6M, operating cash flow of $86.4M, and free cash flow of $64.5M (-7.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, GENI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$669.5M	-$111.6M	$86.4M	$64.5M	$1.13B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$510.9M	-$63.0M	$81.9M	$69.6M	$792.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$413.0M	-$85.5M	$14.9M	$14.9M	—	—

3. GENI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?

Where is GENI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GENI last traded at $6.36 (-1.55% on volume of 7,432,500 shares), positioning the stock -4.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.63) and +2.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.22). Across its 52-week range of $3.83 to $11.57, GENI sits at the 32.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.3% ($5.58 to $7.14).

GENI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is GENI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Genius Sports Limited (GENI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is GENI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.3% event move for GENI, spanning a range between $5.58 and $7.14.

Direct Sub-Reports: GENI RQD Cockpit GENI 12M Forecast GENI Earnings & Move GENI Dividends & DRIP GENI Insiders & 13F GENI Whale Options GENI Profit Sankey GENI News & Why