MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GENI Stock advanced +1.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$6.46 +1.73% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.47
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.73B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.47 (+0.12%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GENI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GENI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (27% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$6.65-4.5% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$6.35-0.3% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$6.33+2.1% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$6.46-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GENI Turnaround Squeeze
While GENI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.67) and Max Pain ($6.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.16.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GENI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GENI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GENI Stock advanced +1.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Genius Sports Limited (GENI) advanced +1.73% to $6.46, trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($3.83 – $11.58). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-27% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($3.83 – $11.58) with RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $6.46 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 23% gross margin and $64.5M annual free cash flow.
Live GENI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GENI)
- ✓Walkthrough of GENI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +48.17%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $6.42H $6.50L $6.22C $6.46VOL 7.43M
RES: $6.70SUP: $5.18SMA50: $6.67SMA200: $6.24
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GENI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GENI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GENI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GENI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GENI)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #677 of 1011
⚔️ BRSL vs GENI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GENI vs. BRSL, PRSU, PRKS, STUB)
Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) ranks #677 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #436 by equity capitalization ($1.73B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRKS leads on earnings valuation at 8.5x trailing P/E, while PRKS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. PRKS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with GENI at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENI
ACTIVE
Genius Sports Limited | D | 48/100 | — | 23.0% | -26.9% | +1.73% | $1.73B | Benchmark Subject |
| BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025. | D | 49/100 | 12.0x | — | 16.8% | +3.34% | $1.77B | /brsl-vs-geni → |
| PRSU Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc. | D | 46/100 | 66.4x | 92.3% | 3.9% | +3.04% | $1.51B | /prsu-vs-geni → |
| PRKS United Parks & Resorts Inc. | C | 63/100 | 8.5x | — | 17.2% | +1.97% | $1.43B | /prks-vs-geni → |
| STUB StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +3.93% | $2.22B | /stub-vs-geni → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001834489In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Genius Sports Limited (GENI) reported GAAP revenue of $669.5M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $510.9M , and +62.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$111.6M, operating cash flow of $86.4M, and free cash flow of $64.5M (-7.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, GENI closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $669.5M | -$111.6M | $86.4M | $64.5M | $1.13B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $510.9M | -$63.0M | $81.9M | $69.6M | $792.3M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $413.0M | -$85.5M | $14.9M | $14.9M | — | — |
3. GENI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GENI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.46 (+1.73% 1D, market cap $1.73B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GENI ranks #677 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GENI compare to BRSL and PRSU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), GENI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 23.0%, and ROIC of -26.9%. By comparison, BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B) and PRSU (Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 66.4x, ROIC 3.9%, cap $1.51B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRKS leads on earnings multiple (8.5x) while PRKS leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GENI?
Per GENI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001834489), Genius Sports Limited generated $669.5M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), -$111.6M in net income, and $64.5M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GENI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GENI last traded at $6.46 (+1.73% on volume of 5,216,306 shares), positioning the stock -3.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.67) and +3.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.24). Across its 52-week range of $3.83 to $11.58, GENI sits at the 33.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.65 to $7.27).
GENI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GENI stock moving today?
Why GENI Stock advanced +1.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-27% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.