Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / STUB / earnings

MSGR (66) BRSL (49) GENI (48) RSI (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.7% Move

$5.82 +3.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85

StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.22B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.85 (+0.52%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 11% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STUB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STUB SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$6.12-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.86-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$5.85-0.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.82-0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a STUB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While STUB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.94) and Max Pain ($6.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.86.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STUB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STUB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.7% Swing Band

±$0.56 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

STUB Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 53/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -1.4%

Model Bullish Setup (53/100)Model Risk Weight (47/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.75B	-$1.91B	$191.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.77B	-$2.8M	$259.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.37B	$405.2M	$307.4M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STUB)

✓Walkthrough of STUB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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STUB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.16%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $5.76H $5.87L $5.62C $5.82VOL 7.65M

RES: $5.82SUP: $4.82SMA50: $5.94SMA200: $8.50

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STUB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STUB Butterfly Map → + Track STUB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STUB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STUB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STUB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STUB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #581 of 1011 ⚔️ MSGR vs STUB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (STUB vs. MSGR, BRSL, GENI, RSI)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) ranks #581 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #403 by equity capitalization ($2.22B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRSL leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while RSI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 27.3% ROIC and 34.6% gross margin. MSGR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with STUB at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STUB ACTIVE StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.93%	$2.22B	Benchmark Subject
MSGR MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A)	C+	66/100	—	—	—	+16.26%	$2.63B	/msgr-vs-stub →
BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.	D	49/100	12.0x	—	16.8%	+3.34%	$1.77B	/brsl-vs-stub →
GENI Genius Sports Limited	D	48/100	—	23.0%	-26.9%	+1.73%	$1.73B	/geni-vs-stub →
RSI Rush Street Interactive Inc.	C	62/100	94.8x	34.6%	27.3%	-9.98%	$3.16B	/rsi-vs-stub →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001337634

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.75B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.77B , and +27.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$1.91B, operating cash flow of $192.6M, and free cash flow of $191.2M (-26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, STUB closed FY2025 with $5.05B in total assets against $1.51B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.75B	-$1.91B	$192.6M	$191.2M	$5.05B	$1.51B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.77B	-$2.8M	$261.5M	$259.8M	$5.09B	$2.31B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.37B	$405.2M	$307.4M	$307.4M	—	—

3. STUB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STUB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: STUB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $5.82 (+3.93% 1D, market cap $2.22B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, STUB ranks #581 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STUB compare to MSGR and BRSL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), STUB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MSGR (MSG Rangers Corp. (Class A)) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.63B) and BRSL (Brightstar Lottery PLC Trading under the Legal Name to begin at the market open on July 21 2025.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $1.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRSL leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while RSI leads on capital efficiency (27.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STUB?

Per STUB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337634), StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $1.75B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$1.91B in net income, and $191.2M in free cash flow against $5.05B in total assets and $1.51B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STUB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STUB last traded at $5.82 (+3.93% on volume of 4,162,029 shares), positioning the stock -2.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.94) and -31.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.50). Across its 52-week range of $5.22 to $19.87, STUB sits at the 4.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($5.26 to $6.38).

STUB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is STUB's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, StubHub Holdings Inc. (Class A) (STUB)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is STUB stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.7% event move for STUB, spanning a range between $5.26 and $6.38.

Direct Sub-Reports: STUB RQD Cockpit STUB 12M Forecast STUB Earnings & Move STUB Dividends & DRIP STUB Insiders & 13F STUB Whale Options STUB Profit Sankey STUB News & Why