Stock Ratings / Health Care / SNDA / forecast

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Sonida Senior Living Inc. (SNDA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$34.25 +1.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.30

Sonida Senior Living Inc. (SNDA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $34.30 (+0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SNDA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SNDA SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$35.24+0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$35.29-4.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$33.82+1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$34.25-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SNDA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SNDA currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($37.09) and Max Pain ($35.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $46.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SNDA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SNDA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SNDA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $34.25: 292.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.16

$7,346

$-2,654 (-26.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $32.25

$9,416

$-584 (-5.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $46.61

$13,609

+$3,609 (+36.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$34	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$44	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$29	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SNDA)

✓Walkthrough of SNDA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SNDA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $34.42H $34.91L $34.11C $34.25VOL 466.4K

RES: $46.81SUP: $32.18SMA50: $37.09SMA200: $36.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SNDA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SNDA Butterfly Map → + Track SNDA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SNDA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SNDA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SNDA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SNDA)

Health Care Rank #474 of 1016 ⚔️ HCSG vs SNDA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SNDA vs. HCSG, ARDT, MD, BKD)

Industry: Hospital/Nursing Management (14 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sonida Senior Living Inc. (SNDA) ranks #474 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #295 by equity capitalization ($1.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARDT leads on earnings valuation at 12.8x trailing P/E, while MD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.6% ROIC and — gross margin. MD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with SNDA at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SNDA ACTIVE Sonida Senior Living Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.94%	$1.65B	Benchmark Subject
HCSG Healthcare Services Group Inc.	B-	70/100	28.2x	13.0%	11.6%	+2.58%	$1.66B	/hcsg-vs-snda →
ARDT Ardent Health Inc.	C+	67/100	12.8x	—	10.5%	+3.10%	$1.73B	/ardt-vs-snda →
MD Pediatrix Medical Group Inc.	B	74/100	14.3x	—	33.6%	+0.93%	$2.37B	/md-vs-snda →
BKD Brookdale Senior Living Inc.	D	46/100	—	26.2%	0.3%	+2.91%	$2.45B	/bkd-vs-snda →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001043000

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sonida Senior Living Inc. (SNDA) reported GAAP revenue of $381.1M (+25.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $304.3M , and +49.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$72.5M, operating cash flow of $24.4M, and free cash flow of -$8.9M (+66.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, SNDA closed FY2025 with $844.8M in total assets against $682.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$381.1M	-$72.5M	$24.4M	-$8.9M	$844.8M	$682.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$304.3M	-$3.3M	-$1.8M	-$27.0M	$841.9M	$635.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$255.3M	-$21.1M	$10.7M	$10.7M	—	—

3. SNDA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SNDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sonida Senior Living Inc. (NYSE: SNDA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $34.25 (+1.94% 1D, market cap $1.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SNDA ranks #474 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SNDA compare to HCSG and ARDT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Hospital/Nursing Management), SNDA carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, HCSG (Healthcare Services Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 28.2x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $1.66B) and ARDT (Ardent Health Inc.) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.8x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $1.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARDT leads on earnings multiple (12.8x) while MD leads on capital efficiency (33.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SNDA?

Per SNDA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001043000), Sonida Senior Living Inc. generated $381.1M in revenue (+25.2% YoY), -$72.5M in net income, and -$8.9M in free cash flow against $844.8M in total assets and $682.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SNDA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SNDA last traded at $34.25 (+1.94% on volume of 392,678 shares), positioning the stock -7.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.09) and -5.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($36.42). Across its 52-week range of $24.95 to $44.39, SNDA sits at the 47.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.2% ($31.78 to $36.72).

SNDA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SNDA's 12-month stock price target?

Sonida Senior Living Inc. (SNDA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $32.25 (-5.8% from $34.25), with a bull-case target of $46.61 and a bear-case floor of $25.16.

Is SNDA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SNDA D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 45/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: SNDA RQD Cockpit SNDA 12M Forecast SNDA Earnings & Move SNDA Dividends & DRIP SNDA Insiders & 13F SNDA Whale Options SNDA Profit Sankey SNDA News & Why