Stock Ratings / Financials / RWT / options

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Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$3.13 -3.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.11

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 27/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $405.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RWT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RWT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Redwood Trust Inc. (NYSE: RWT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 27/100 at a spot price of $3.13 (-3.10% 1D, market cap $405.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RWT ranks #1048 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RWT compare to XRN and FPI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), RWT carries a Roarable E (27/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -7.1%. By comparison, XRN (Chiron Real Estate Inc.) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.4%, cap $404.0M) and FPI (Farmland Partners Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $384.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FPI leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while FPI leads on capital efficiency (5.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWT?

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Per RWT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000930236), Redwood Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$70.0M in net income, and -$10.09B in free cash flow against $23.70B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.11 (-0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (27/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RWT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (27/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RWT SCORES 27/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (37% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+5/20 pts (19% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.06-4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.92+10.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.23-3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade E$3.13-10.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (19) → E (27)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RWT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RWT currently carries a cautious 27/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.71) and Max Pain ($3.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RWT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RWT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 27%NO 73%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RWT)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RWT.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RWT)

✓Walkthrough of RWT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RWT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -44.11%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $3.26H $3.26L $3.13C $3.13VOL 2.07M

RES: $4.89SUP: $2.46SMA50: $3.71SMA200: $4.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RWT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RWT Butterfly Map → + Track RWT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RWT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RWT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RWT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RWT)

Financials Rank #1048 of 1096 ⚔️ XRN vs RWT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RWT vs. XRN, FPI, TCI, BRSP)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) ranks #1048 by composite RQD confidence (27/100, grade E) and #745 by equity capitalization ($405.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FPI leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while FPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.9% ROIC and — gross margin. FPI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with RWT at 27/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RWT ACTIVE Redwood Trust Inc.	E	27/100	—	—	-7.1%	-3.10%	$405.7M	Benchmark Subject
XRN Chiron Real Estate Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-1.4%	-0.49%	$404.0M	/xrn-vs-rwt →
FPI Farmland Partners Inc.	D	46/100	12.2x	—	5.9%	-4.20%	$384.0M	/fpi-vs-rwt →
TCI Transcontinental Realty Investors Inc.	D-	39/100	31.6x	—	-0.6%	-0.99%	$435.7M	/tci-vs-rwt →
BRSP BrightSpire Capital Inc. (Class A)	D-	35/100	—	—	-3.3%	-3.12%	$440.1M	/brsp-vs-rwt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000930236

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$70.0M, operating cash flow of -$10.09B, and free cash flow of -$10.09B (-72.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RWT closed FY2025 with $23.70B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$70.0M	-$10.09B	-$10.09B	$23.70B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$54.0M	-$5.86B	-$5.86B	$18.26B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$2.3M	-$2.02B	-$2.02B	—	—

3. RWT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RWT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RWT compare to XRN and FPI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWT?

Where is RWT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RWT last traded at $3.13 (-3.10% on volume of 2,570,320 shares), positioning the stock -15.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.71) and -37.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.99). Across its 52-week range of $2.88 to $6.97, RWT sits at the 6.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($2.83 to $3.43).

RWT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RWT's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for RWT.

Direct Sub-Reports: RWT RQD Cockpit RWT 12M Forecast RWT Earnings & Move RWT Dividends & DRIP RWT Insiders & 13F RWT Whale Options RWT Profit Sankey RWT News & Why