Stock Ratings / Technology / RPD / forecast

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Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.08 -3.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.94

Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.94 (-0.80%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 17% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RPD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RPD SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17% FCF Margin ($146.2M FCF) & 70.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$13.74-8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$12.61+18.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$14.91+14.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$17.08-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RPD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RPD currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.89) and Max Pain ($17.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.64.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RPD• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RPD Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RPD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.08: 585.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.96

$7,588

$-2,412 (-24.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.62

$9,731

$-269 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.64

$11,499

+$1,499 (+15.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$17	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$18	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$15	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RPD)

✓Walkthrough of RPD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

RPD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +189.49%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $16.98H $17.40L $15.88C $17.08VOL 1.63M

RES: $18.78SUP: $12.64SMA50: $12.89SMA200: $9.45

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RPD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RPD Butterfly Map → + Track RPD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

35.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RPD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RPD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RPD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RPD)

Technology Rank #374 of 714 ⚔️ COUR vs RPD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (RPD vs. COUR, BBAI, RDVT, TUYA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) ranks #374 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #343 by equity capitalization ($1.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TUYA leads on earnings valuation at 17.6x trailing P/E, while RDVT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TUYA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with RPD at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RPD ACTIVE Rapid7 Inc.	D+	52/100	49.2x	70.3%	15.9%	-3.39%	$1.15B	Benchmark Subject
COUR Coursera Inc.	D+	54/100	—	54.6%	-35.0%	-0.85%	$1.23B	/cour-vs-rpd →
BBAI BigBear.ai Inc.	E	28/100	—	22.3%	-27.5%	+8.54%	$1.29B	/bbai-vs-rpd →
RDVT Red Violet Inc.	C-	59/100	98.2x	—	16.1%	-2.35%	$1.29B	/rdvt-vs-rpd →
TUYA Tuya Inc. each representing one Class A Ordinary Share	B	72/100	17.6x	48.2%	6.9%	+3.75%	$1.02B	/tuya-vs-rpd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001560327

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) reported GAAP revenue of $859.8M (+1.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $844.0M , and +10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $23.4M, operating cash flow of $153.8M, and free cash flow of $146.2M (-13.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RPD closed FY2025 with $1.73B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.29, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$859.8M	$23.4M	$153.8M	$146.2M	$1.73B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$844.0M	$25.5M	$171.7M	$168.2M	$1.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$777.7M	-$152.8M	$104.3M	$104.3M	—	—

3. RPD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RPD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Rapid7 Inc. (NASDAQ: RPD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $17.08 (-3.39% 1D, market cap $1.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, RPD ranks #374 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RPD compare to COUR and BBAI in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), RPD carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 49.2x, gross margin of 70.3%, and ROIC of 15.9%. By comparison, COUR (Coursera Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.23B) and BBAI (BigBear.ai Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.5%, cap $1.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TUYA leads on earnings multiple (17.6x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RPD?

Per RPD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001560327), Rapid7 Inc. generated $859.8M in revenue (+1.9% YoY), $23.4M in net income, and $146.2M in free cash flow against $1.73B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RPD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RPD last traded at $17.08 (-3.39% on volume of 2,425,143 shares), positioning the stock +32.51% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.89) and +80.74% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.45). Across its 52-week range of $4.97 to $18.70, RPD sits at the 88.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($14.95 to $19.21).

RPD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RPD's 12-month stock price target?

Rapid7 Inc. (RPD) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.62 (-2.7% from $17.08), with a bull-case target of $19.64 and a bear-case floor of $12.96.

Is RPD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates RPD D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: RPD RQD Cockpit RPD 12M Forecast RPD Earnings & Move RPD Dividends & DRIP RPD Insiders & 13F RPD Whale Options RPD Profit Sankey RPD News & Why