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Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$52.10 -0.02% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.00

Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.15B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REPX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REPX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (NYSE: REPX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $52.10 (-0.02% 1D, market cap $1.15B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 19/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, REPX ranks #51 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REPX compare to TBN and BORR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), REPX carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.2%. By comparison, TBN (Tamboran Resources Corporation) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.1%, cap $1.10B) and BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 27.8x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $1.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPX?

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Per REPX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001001614), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. generated $392.0M in revenue (-4.4% YoY), $160.8M in net income, and $212.5M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $227.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.00 (-0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 54.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REPX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REPX SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+19/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 92% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 72.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$45.37+7.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$48.68+11.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$54.18-3.8% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$52.10+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REPX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, REPX faces multiple-compression risk if 7.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.97) or 200D SMA ($36.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($54.44) toward Bear Floor ($42.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REPX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REPX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How REPX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$212.5M (54.2% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $375.0M

FY24

Rev $410.2M

FY25

Rev $392.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$392.0M	52%	34%	$160.8M	$212.5M	12.2%
FY 2024	$410.2M	52%	37.5%	$88.9M	$246.3M	16%
FY 2023	$375.0M	52%	45.8%	$111.6M	$207.2M	12.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REPX)

✓Walkthrough of REPX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REPX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +44.04%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $52.85H $53.34L $52.10C $52.10VOL 165.9K

RES: $55.52SUP: $32.54SMA50: $43.97SMA200: $36.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REPX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REPX Butterfly Map → + Track REPX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-7.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REPX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REPX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REPX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REPX)

Energy Rank #51 of 211 ⚔️ TBN vs REPX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (REPX vs. TBN, BORR, SBR, HPK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) ranks #51 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #135 by equity capitalization ($1.15B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REPX leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while REPX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REPX ACTIVE Riley Exploration Permian Inc.	C+	68/100	7.2x	—	12.2%	-0.02%	$1.15B	Benchmark Subject
TBN Tamboran Resources Corporation	D	45/100	—	—	-10.1%	-1.14%	$1.10B	/tbn-vs-repx →
BORR Borr Drilling Limited	D+	53/100	27.8x	—	8.9%	-7.52%	$1.25B	/borr-vs-repx →
SBR Sabine Royalty Trust	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-0.54%	$1.04B	/sbr-vs-repx →
HPK HighPeak Energy Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	4.6%	-4.83%	$1.32B	/hpk-vs-repx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001001614

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX) reported GAAP revenue of $392.0M (-4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $410.2M , and +4.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $160.8M, operating cash flow of $212.5M, and free cash flow of $212.5M (-13.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, REPX closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $227.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.33, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$392.0M	$160.8M	$212.5M	$212.5M	$1.17B	$227.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$410.2M	$88.9M	$246.3M	$246.3M	$993.5M	$249.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$375.0M	$111.6M	$207.2M	$207.2M	—	—

3. REPX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REPX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does REPX compare to TBN and BORR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REPX?

Where is REPX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REPX last traded at $52.10 (-0.02% on volume of 176,304 shares), positioning the stock +18.49% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.97) and +43.96% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.19). Across its 52-week range of $24.08 to $54.57, REPX sits at the 91.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 72.2 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($48.19 to $56.01).

REPX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Riley Exploration Permian Inc. (REPX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), REPX converted $392.0M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 34% operating margin, and $212.5M in free cash flow (54.2% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: REPX RQD Cockpit REPX 12M Forecast REPX Earnings & Move REPX Dividends & DRIP REPX Insiders & 13F REPX Whale Options REPX Profit Sankey REPX News & Why