Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / REF / forecast

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Reformation Inc. (REF) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.22 +2.66% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.27

Reformation Inc. (REF) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $958.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.27 (+0.29%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY REF SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 61.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$13.66-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$13.63+14.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$15.58+4.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$16.22+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the REF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, REF faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.03) or 200D SMA ($14.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.58) toward Bear Floor ($12.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “REF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your REF Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.22: 616.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $12.93

$7,972

$-2,028 (-20.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.58

$10,222

+$222 (+2.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.56

$12,059

+$2,059 (+20.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$17	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$18	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$15	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (REF Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

REF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.56%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $16.28H $16.75L $15.50C $16.22VOL 278.7K

RES: $16.56SUP: $10.95SMA50: $14.03SMA200: $14.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REF Butterfly Map → + Track REF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #330 of 1011 ⚔️ GOOS vs REF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (REF vs. GOOS, CRI, GIII, CPRI)

Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Reformation Inc. (REF) ranks #330 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #512 by equity capitalization ($958.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CRI leads on earnings valuation at 13.3x trailing P/E, while CRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.3% ROIC and 45.4% gross margin. GIII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with REF at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
REF ACTIVE Reformation Inc.	C	63/100	—	—	—	+2.66%	$958.3M	Benchmark Subject
GOOS Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares	C	63/100	—	—	—	+3.34%	$785.2M	/goos-vs-ref →
CRI Carter's Inc.	B	72/100	13.3x	45.4%	11.3%	+7.54%	$1.23B	/cri-vs-ref →
GIII G-III Apparel Group LTD.	B	73/100	—	39.4%	6.3%	+3.80%	$1.30B	/giii-vs-ref →
CPRI Capri Holdings Limited	D+	53/100	23.1x	62.3%	10.4%	+5.04%	$1.83B	/cpri-vs-ref →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0001787117

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), Reformation Inc. (REF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, REF closed FY2025 with $937.9M in total assets against $147.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-27	$0	$0	—	—	$937.9M	$147.7M

3. REF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Reformation Inc. (NYSE: REF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $16.22 (+2.66% 1D, market cap $958.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, REF ranks #330 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REF compare to GOOS and CRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), REF carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GOOS (Canada Goose Holdings Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $785.2M) and CRI (Carter's Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 13.3x, ROIC 11.3%, cap $1.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CRI leads on earnings multiple (13.3x) while CRI leads on capital efficiency (11.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REF?

Per REF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0001787117), Reformation Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $937.9M in total assets and $147.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REF last traded at $16.22 (+2.66% on volume of 1,112,300 shares), positioning the stock +15.61% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.03) and +12.48% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.42). Across its 52-week range of $11.85 to $17.26, REF sits at the 80.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($14.19 to $18.25).

REF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is REF's 12-month stock price target?

Reformation Inc. (REF) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $16.58 (+2.2% from $16.22), with a bull-case target of $19.56 and a bear-case floor of $12.93.

Is REF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates REF C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 63/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: REF RQD Cockpit REF 12M Forecast REF Earnings & Move REF Dividends & DRIP REF Insiders & 13F REF Whale Options REF Profit Sankey REF News & Why