CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 1d ago
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Why PZZA Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$18.80 +1.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81
Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $618.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.81 (+0.06%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PZZA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PZZA SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($61.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B+$19.75-1.8% Next Q
76
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$19.39-6.7% Next Q
73
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B$18.10+3.9% Next Q
71
CurrentGrade C+$18.80+1.8% Hist 90D α
68
Trajectory: B+ (76) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PZZA Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PZZA faces multiple-compression risk if 20.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.50) or 200D SMA ($30.05) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($19.65) toward Bear Floor ($15.33).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PZZA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PZZA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why PZZA Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) advanced +1.40% to $18.80, trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($17.7 – $52.02). Solid steady margins (31% return on capital), mixed timing at 20x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($17.7 – $52.02) with RSI-14 at 39 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.1% around $18.80 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $61.3M annual free cash flow.
Live PZZA Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 2d ago
Papa John’s 10% Dividend Yield Is Misleading. Here’s How Domino’s ComparesOne pizza chain flashes a near double-digit dividend yield that no longer exists, while the other quietly raises its payout every year. Knowing which number to trust could be the difference between steady retirement inco
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 2d ago
Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Papa John's International, Lowers Price Target to $20Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan maintains Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $26 to $20.
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Analysts Estimate Papa John's (PZZA) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out forPapa John's (PZZA) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Winners and losers of Q2: Papa John's (NASDAQ:PZZA) vs the rest of the traditional fast food stocksAs the Q2 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the traditional fast food industry, including Papa John's (NASDAQ:PZZA) and its peers.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
Walmart’s Food Delivery Could Be Cheaper for Fast Food Chains and ConsumersThis year, the retail giant teamed up with Subway, Dunkin’, and Papa John’s to offer fast food delivery.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
Casey’s Wants a Bigger Slice of the Pizza Market. Why Fast Food Chains Are Worried.The convenience store operator says nearly 80% of the small towns it serves lack a nearby national pan-pizza option.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 8d ago
Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets This WeekWall Street weekly recap: hotter CPI, rising VIX, tech weakness and big bank earnings.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 11d ago
El Pollo Loco and Papa John's shares plummet, what you need to knowA number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after reports pointed to persistent traffic headwinds, sluggish sales growth, and mounting executive pessimism ahead of quarterly earnings. According to Morningstar, quick
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 12d ago
Papa John's: This Painful Reset Could Set The Stage For Recovery (Rating Upgrade)Papa Johnâs (PZZA) upgraded to Strong Buy: restructuring, Walmart delivery deal and margin/EBITDA upside create a valuation disconnect.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PZZA Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
PZZA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.05%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $18.80H $19.11L $18.29C $18.80VOL 1.48M
RES: $17.57SUP: $15.43SMA50: $20.50SMA200: $30.05
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
PZZA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PZZA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PZZA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PZZA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PZZA)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #222 of 1011
⚔️ HDL vs PZZA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PZZA vs. HDL, BRCB, CNNE, FWRG)
Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) ranks #222 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #565 by equity capitalization ($618.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PZZA leads on earnings valuation at 20.3x trailing P/E, while PZZA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PZZA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PZZA
ACTIVE
Papa John's International Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 20.3x | — | 30.5% | +1.40% | $618.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| HDL SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | — | 0.00% | $643.8M | /hdl-vs-pzza → |
| BRCB Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A) | D | 44/100 | — | — | 1.6% | +3.82% | $530.3M | /brcb-vs-pzza → |
| CNNE Cannae Holdings Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | 15.5% | -10.6% | +1.78% | $743.9M | /cnne-vs-pzza → |
| FWRG First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. | D | 45/100 | 39.7x | — | 3.6% | +8.31% | $772.0M | /fwrg-vs-pzza → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0000901491In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Papa John's International Inc. (PZZA) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (-0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and -3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $30.5M, operating cash flow of $126.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M (+79.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PZZA closed FY2025 with $837.5M in total assets against $710.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.37, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-28 | $2.05B | $30.5M | $126.0M | $61.3M | $837.5M | $710.4M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-29 | $2.06B | $83.5M | $106.6M | $34.1M | $889.0M | $741.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.14B | $82.1M | $193.1M | $193.1M | — | — |
3. PZZA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs PZZA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Papa John's International Inc. (NASDAQ: PZZA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $18.80 (+1.40% 1D, market cap $618.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PZZA ranks #222 in composite RQD confidence.
How does PZZA compare to HDL and BRCB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), PZZA carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.5%. By comparison, HDL (SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $643.8M) and BRCB (Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.6%, cap $530.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PZZA leads on earnings multiple (20.3x) while PZZA leads on capital efficiency (30.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PZZA?
Per PZZA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0000901491), Papa John's International Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (-0.3% YoY), $30.5M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $837.5M in total assets and $710.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is PZZA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
PZZA last traded at $18.80 (+1.40% on volume of 1,265,219 shares), positioning the stock -8.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.50) and -37.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.05). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $52.02, PZZA sits at the 3.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($17.47 to $20.13).
PZZA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is PZZA stock moving today?
Why PZZA Stock advanced +1.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (31% return on capital), mixed timing at 20x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.